Date first published: 27/03/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political polarisation; political stability; civil unrest; political violence; governability
Risk development
On 26 March a five-judge Supreme Court panel unanimously ruled that former president Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 election and stage a coup against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Justice Alexandre de Moraes cited Bolsonaro’s “systematic effort” to delegitimise the election and incite violence. Bolsonaro denounced the charges as “grave and baseless”, claiming to be the victim of “political persecution” to prevent him from running again for president in 2026.
The unusually swift ruling suggests the court aims to conclude the trial before the 2026 election. The trial could start as early as this year, and if found guilty Bolsonaro, could face years in prison. Seven other former government officials, described by the attorney-general as “co-conspirators”, will also stand trial over the events which led up to the storming of government buildings by Bolsonaro’s supporters on 8 January 2023, a week after Lula's inauguration.
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