Americas: Six soldiers killed in Colombia amid a spate of attacks against security forces
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes
In Colombia, on 27 April six soldiers were killed following an attack from the ‘Jorge Briceno’ front of the General Staff of the Blocs and Fronts (EMBF) factions of the EMC – the country’s largest dissident former FARC rebel group – led by Alexander Mendoza, alias ‘Calarca’, in Charras, Guaviare department. This came amid reports that at least 18 other soldiers were killed between 10 and 25 April across the country in attacks attributed to the National Liberation Army (ELN), the Gulf Clan and Ivan Mordisco’s dissident former FARC rebels. Authorities stated the recent spate of attacks was related to ‘Plan Pistola’, spearheaded by the Gulf Clan in retaliation for the killing of one of its leaders on 5 April in a security operation. The risk of similar further attacks will remain heightened amid a fragile security situation in the country.
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Asia Pacific: Philippines condemns China’s claims of Sandy Cay reef in South China Sea
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional escalation; war-at-sea
In the Philippines, on 28 April officials denounced China’s Coast Guard landing on the disputed Sandy Cay reef, located only 3 km from the Philippines’ inhabited Thitu Island in the South China Sea. The landing, which was conducted on an unspecified date in mid-April, was announced by Chinese state media on 24 April, two days after the launch of the US-Philippines’ 22 April “Balikatan” joint military drills. Beijing claimed that its landing was carried out “to conduct on-reef inspection, record illegal activity, and clean up debris scattered across the reef”. Manila’s Coast Guard responded by launching its own landing of Sandy Cay on 27 April, which Beijing denounced as an “illegal boarding”. Sino-Philippine maritime tensions over Sandy Cay, and the South China Sea at large, are set to continue as both sides seek to assert respective claims over the area.
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Eurasia: Kazakhstan to place national interest over OPEC+ oil limits amid rift with alliance
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key Risks: trade tensions; oil price volatility
In Kazakhstan, on 25 April Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that Astana would prioritise its national interests above OPEC+ limits on oil production, signalling a growing rift with the oil-producing alliance. He also stated that Astana did not have full control over most of its output – 70 per cent of which comes from the Kashagan, Karachaganak and Tengiz oil fields – as the fields are operated by Western energy firms. On 3 April eight OPEC+ members agreed to end output cuts by raising output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, a move partly seen as an attempt to reinforce discipline among the bloc’s non-compliant members. Astana routinely exceeded its output quotas in 2024, frustrating OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia. An escalating dispute with OPEC+ would raise the risk of Astana exiting the alliance.
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Europe: Romania to hold presidential election on 4 May after November annulment
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Romania on 4 May citizens will head to the polls to vote in the first round of presidential elections. George Simion, the leader of the right-wing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party, is currently leading the polls with around 29 per cent support. His major contenders are Crin Antonescu – the government coalition’s candidate – and Bucharest’s Mayor Nicusor Dan, both polling at around 20 per cent. The election will come after the Constitutional Court annulled the November 2024 presidential vote over suspected election meddling and massive social media promotion of a right-wing populist candidate, Calin Georgescu, who unexpectedly won the vote. Georgescu was subsequently banned from running, resulting in increased voter fatigue and a likely boost for Simion, who appears on track to win the first round. However, he could be defeated in the second round should his contender secure the votes of unsuccessful candidates.
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MENA: Deadly blast at Rajaei Port in Iran raises industrial and regional tensions
Sectors: Energy
Key risks: industrial action; trade disruptions; political stability; regional escalation
In Iran, on 26 April at least 40 people were killed and over 1,200 were injured in a massive explosion at Rajaei Port, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan province. Reports emerged that poorly stored chemicals caused the blast, while Western media speculated that mishandled missile fuel was involved. The Defence Ministry dismissed such claims as “enemy psyops”. The blast occurred amid the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman, fueling concerns over potential sabotage and industrial safety. Heightened scrutiny of critical infrastructure and intensified security measures around ports and energy hubs are expected in the short term. Accusations of sabotage could further strain diplomatic efforts and increase the risk of retaliatory action against perceived foreign threats. The likelihood of domestic pressure on authorities to improve industrial safety standards is high, although significant regulatory reforms are unlikely in the near term.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Reported militant activity in Kwara state worsens security outlook in Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; communal violence; banditry
In Nigeria, on 21 April a Boko Haram splinter group known as Mahmadu faction was reported to control several villages in the Kaiama and Baruten Local Government Areas (LGA) in Kwara state and parts of Borgu LGA in Niger state. Initially suspected to be a new militant group, the Mahmadu faction represents the growing threat of Islamist insurgency beyond the North West and North East zones of the country. The militant group, which was originally situated in Niger state, cooperates with local bandit groups to establish itself in Kwara state and attack state security forces. Developments in Kwara state have followed worsening insecurity elsewhere as intercommunal violence has flared up in Benue and Plateau states in 2025. The Mahmadu faction will likely use the growing security crisis in central Nigeria to entrench and expand its influence in Kwara state in the coming months.
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