Americas: Two police officers, journalist and merchant injured in clashes in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes;
In Bolivia, on 16 May two police officers, a journalist and a merchant were injured in clashes in the capital La Paz between supporters of former president Evo Morales – including labour unions and social organisations – and police, who deployed tear gas to disperse the crowd. Protesters marched towards the electoral court to demand Morales’s reinstatement as a candidate in the upcoming 17 August presidential election. Protests erupted after on 14 May the Constitutional Court upheld the Constitutional Tribunal’s November 2024 ruling limiting presidents to two terms, effectively barring Morales from running for office after having served three terms. This came amid President Luis Arce’s – who announced on 13 May he would not seek re-election – ongoing political feud with Morales, which has divided the ruling MAS party and politicised the legitimacy of the court’s decision. The risk of civil unrest and violent clashes will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Nearly two tonnes of drugs seized in one of largest seizures in Indonesia’s history
Sectors: all
Key Risks: cargo transport; sanctions
In Indonesia, on 16 May reports emerged that five individuals – including one Thai and four Myanmar nationals – were arrested on an unspecified day last week, after the navy intercepted a Thai-flagged vessel off the coast of Sumatra, near Tanjung Balai Karimun area, Riau Islands province. 705 kg of methamphetamine and 1.2 tonnes of cocaine were seized during the operation, with a value estimated at IDR7tn (US$437.5m), making it one of the largest seizures in the country’s history. The Navy launched an investigation regarding the destination of the vessel, which was reportedly escorted to a naval base in Tanjung Balai Karimun. While drug-trafficking routes become increasingly hard to identify, further seizures are likely as the country enforces some of the toughest anti-narcotics laws globally, with drug trafficking punishable by death.
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Eurasia: Trump calls Putin as Ukraine-Russia peace talks stall
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land;
In Russia, on 19 May US President Donald Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on ending the war in Ukraine, after the start of direct Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey on 16 May. While the details of their call have not yet been released, Trump was expected to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several NATO members’ officials. The call was scheduled after US officials recognised an “impasse in the peace process” following the first round of talks In Istanbul which ended with no progress as Moscow and Kyiv’s demands remain fundamentally irreconcilable. US officials have expressed frustration with the slow pace of talks, with some blaming Putin for stalling. While Kyiv and Moscow may work towards technically implementing a ceasefire in the coming weeks, progress on a larger deal remains unlikely.
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Europe: Portugal’s ruling centre-right AD wins elections, misses majority amid far-right gains
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Portugal, on 18 May the ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won the snap parliamentary elections but failed to secure the majority needed to govern without a coalition, with widespread voter fatigue amid the third snap elections in three years. AD secured 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, up by nine seats from the previous election. The opposition Socialists tied with the far-right Chega for second place with 58 seats each – a major win for Chega. The vote was called on 13 March after AD’s Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s government lost a confidence vote and collapsed over corruption allegations. The opposition questioned Montenegro’s integrity over his failure to divest ownership from his consultancy firm. AD has refused to enter talks with Chega and stated it would form a new minority government. Political instability will persist, likely boosting Chega’s support.
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MENA: Four killed in explosion at police station in Syria’s Al Mayadin, Dayr al-Zur province
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; governability; civil war; terrorism
In Syria, on 18 May at least three General Security Forces (GSF) officers and one civilian were killed while several others were injured in an IED explosion at a police station in Al Mayadin, Dayr al-Zur province. No group immediately claimed responsibility but the incident came after three IS members were killed and four were arrested in a GSF security operation on 17 May in Aleppo, Aleppo province. The now-defunct Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which forms the backbone of the current government, has long been an IS opponent. IS activity in the country has significantly increased since former president Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December 2024, with the group likely to exploit security vacuums to reassert its presence. Further attacks against government-aligned sites and convoys appear likely in the short term, especially in the eastern provinces.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Boko Haram and IS-WAP step up attacks in northeastern Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; regional conflict
In Nigeria, on 17 May 23 civilians were killed in a Boko Haram attack on Malam Karamti, Borno state, marking the latest attack by the group amid a wave of attacks since 28 April. Alongside increasing Boko Haram activity, Islamic State – West Africa Province (IS-WAP) has continued their campaign targeting military camps and security outposts under their ‘Burn the Camps’ campaign launched in February. The two groups have capitalised on the wider security threat in the northeast, with operations of bandits and other organised criminal elements presenting a multifaceted security issue. The military, police and self-defence militias have struggled to curb the growing violence, further worsened by the evolving tactics deployed by the two Islamist militant groups – including greater incorporation of drones carrying IED. Abuja will likely look to bolster security forces in Borno state to curb growing insurgent activity.
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