Americas: Voters head to polls in first-ever judicial elections in Mexico
Sectors: all
Key Risks: governability; governance; political uncertainty; corruption
In Mexico, on 1 June voters headed to the polls in the country’s first-ever judicial elections to choose over 2,600 judges, including all nine Supreme Court justices, in a controversial reform pushed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and her predecessor, former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The vote, marked by just 13 per cent turnout and widespread confusion over thousands of largely unknown candidates, has drawn sharp criticism over potential threats to judicial independence and concerns that it could open the door to greater political and criminal influence over the courts. Supporters claim the reform will democratise a broken system, but critics warn it could weaken checks on the ruling Morena party. Final results are expected by 15 June, although the election already signals a major shift in the country’s balance of power.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand’s Gulf Petroleum Group signs LNG exploration deal with Myanmar junta
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: political violence; sanctions
On 29 May Thailand’s Gulf Petroleum Group’s Myanmar branch signed a deal with Naypyidaw’s junta-owned Myanmar Oil and Natural Gas Enterprise (MOGE) to explore the Min Ye Thu offshore oil site in the Gulf of Mottama, near the Ayeyarwady region. The project is the first of its kind since the Myanmar junta assumed power in a coup d’etat on 1 February 2021. MOGE is Naypyidaw’s largest source of foreign currency through the sale of fossil fuels, despite being sanctioned by the EU and US in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The project, set to begin production in 2028, faces a high risk of political violence due to the ongoing civil war in Myanmar as rebel groups seek to cut off sources of junta funding, while the Gulf Petroleum Group is likely to face backlash from advocacy groups in Thailand for cooperating with Naypyidaw.
Click here to access Thailand’s and here to access Myanmar’s Global Intake country profiles
Eurasia: Ukraine conducts major attack on military airfields in Russia ahead of fresh peace talks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Russia, on 1 June Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) conducted major coordinated attacks on four military airfields countrywide, allegedly destroying around 40 aircraft, including nuclear-capable strategic bombers. Explosions were reported at Belaya airfield, Irkutsk Oblast; Olenya air base, Murmansk Oblast; Dyagilevo air base, Ryazan Oblast and Ivanovo airfield, Ivanovo Oblast. While the attack – one of Kyiv’s most audacious within the country to date – will not directly impact Moscow’s battlefield positions, it deals a major blow to Moscow’s ability to project power globally. The strikes came ahead of the second round of Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul on 2 June, which ended after less than an hour as the two sides continued to advocate widely divergent visions of a peace deal. As peace talks continue to stall, Moscow is expected to retaliate for Kyiv’s attack in the coming days. Further such Ukrainian attacks cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Protests to intensify in Bulgaria ahead of euro accession
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; economic risks; business risks
In Bulgaria, over 100 protests were recorded across the country between 30 May and 1 June against the country’s plan to enter the eurozone by 1 January 2026. The protests were organised by the pro-Russian Revival party and supported by President Rumen Radev, who claimed the government had failed to implement necessary measures to withstand the shock caused by the euro adoption. In Sofia, thousands of protesters blocked the centre for several hours, calling for the government’s resignation. The protests came ahead of the European Commission’s assessment on the country’s readiness, which is set to be published by 4 June and is widely expected to be positive. With Radev and pro-Russian opposition parties capitalising on the fear of euro-adoption – fuelled by a widespread disinformation campaign – further protests are likely in the coming months with the potential to turn disruptive.
Click here to access Bulgaria’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: IS claims attack on Syrian Army for first time since al-Assad’s fall
Sectors: all
Key risks: violent clashes; insurgency; terrorism
In Syria, on 29 May Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for two bomb attacks in southern provinces, including one on 22 May that reportedly killed or injured seven soldiers in al-Suwayda’ province. IS also claimed an attack on the government-aligned Free Syrian Army militia in Tanf, Rif Dimashq province, on 21 May. This was the group’s first claimed attack on the army since former president Bashar al-Assad was ousted on 8 December 2024. However, it was not the first strike: on 1 May four Syrian Army soldiers were killed in an IS attack in Ain Ali, Dayr al-Zur province. Although largely defeated in 2019, IS appears to be reactivating sleeper cells as the country’s post-Assad government begins to stabilise. Further IS attacks against government-aligned forces appear likely in the short term, especially in southern and eastern provinces.
Click here to access Syria’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Trial of opposition figure Tundu Lissu raises risk of protests in Tanzania
Sectors: all
Key risks: political polarisation; civil unrest; arbitrary arrests
In Tanzania, on 2 June the trial of Tundu Lissu, the leader of the opposition CHADEMA party, got underway in Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam region. He was arrested and charged with treason and spreading misinformation on 9 April, with police officers alleging that he called on the country to rebel during a political rally in Mbinga, Ruvuma region, on 3 April. Lissu and the CHADEMA party have faced a sustained campaign of harassment and violence from the government, with multiple CHADEMA officials arrested since 10 April and the party being barred from the October elections on 12 April. CHADEMA announced plans to hold rallies in the north of the country under the ‘No Reform, No Election’ campaign from 28 May. With the main opposition party facing increasing pressure from the government, there is a heightened risk of civil unrest as Lissu’s trial progresses in the coming week.
Click here to access Tanzania’s Global Intake profile.
