Americas: Disruptive social security reform protests persist across Panama
Sectors: all; agriculture
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes; business disruptions; business risks
In Panama, on 8 June President Jose Raul Mulino urged religious leaders to mediate with striking banana workers amid widespread protests against the controversial social security reform passed in March, alongside other grievances. The unrest began on 28 April with a strike in Bocas del Toro province. In May, Chiquita Brands fired nearly 5,000 workers after reporting losses of around US$75m. On 5 June at least three police officers and several protesters were injured in clashes as border police used tear gas and rubber bullets to clear a highway blockade. Mulino has promised sector-supporting legislation if protests end, but ruled out reversing the reform. The Banana Industry Workers Union stated it remained open to dialogue but demanded changes to the law. The protests also oppose a security agreement allowing US troops access to national facilities. Mulino has ruled out further concessions. Further unrest is highly likely.
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Asia Pacific: Indonesia’s Energy Ministry pauses four mining licences in Raja Ampat, West Papua
Sectors: mining
Key Risks: business disruption; frustration of process
In Indonesia, on 6 June the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry temporarily suspended the mining licences for Gag Nickel, Kawei Sejahtera, Anugerah Surya Pratama and Mulia Raymond Perkasa in Raja Ampat, West Papua. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced that the suspension was made following public pressure over the projects’ proximity to a nearby maritime ecological conservation site, with an investigation over the companies’ ability to continue under review. On 7 June Gag Nickel’s president director, Arya Arditya, defended the company’s activity in Raja Ampat, affirming that the company had already acquired all legal permits and fulfilled its compliance regulations, but would cooperate with Jakarta’s decision nonetheless. Bahlil stated that while the suspension of the licences is temporary, an exact timeline for the investigation – to be carried out alongside the Forestry and Maritime Affairs Ministries – was not provided.
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Eurasia: Further retaliatory Russian strikes likely in Ukraine after airfield attacks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 6 and 7 June at least four people were killed and 60 others injured in a series of Russian drone and glide bomb attacks in Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Two people were killed in strikes in Kherson, Kherson Oblast. Strikes were also reported in Kyiv – where three people were killed – as well as Lutsk, Volyn Oblast, Chernihiv, Chernihiv Oblast and Ternopil, Ternopil Oblast. The strikes came in retaliation for Kyiv’s 1 June attack on four Russian airfields and suspected Ukrainian involvement in several bridge explosions near the border in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts. A second round of Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul on 2 June ended after less than an hour as the two sides continued to advocate widely divergent visions of a peace deal. US officials warned that Moscow’s retaliation was not over. Further such strikes are likely.
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Europe: EU reimposes pre-war duties on Ukraine’s agriculture products amid talks on new deal
Sectors: agriculture
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; civil unrest
On 6 June the EU reimposed tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian farm products, with EU officials stating they hoped to reach a deal on new quotas that would be smaller than in the past three years. Brussels temporarily lifted tariffs on Ukrainian grain in June 2022 to compensate for higher export costs as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The agreement – known as Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) – expired on 5 June. The waiver triggered EU-wide protests by farmers in late 2023 and early 2024 amid a flood of cheap Ukrainian produce onto European markets, notably in countries neighbouring Ukraine. Negotiations over the new agreement – which is likely to be based on the pre-war agreement with better conditions for Kyiv – started on 2 June and are expected to conclude by late July, according to Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry.
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MENA: Iran threatens the disclosure of Israeli intelligence documents
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; supply chain disruption; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Iran, on 8 June Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib announced that Tehran would soon unveil sensitive Israeli documents allegedly obtained by its security services. The files reportedly contain intelligence on Tel Aviv’s nuclear infrastructure, defence capabilities and foreign relations, and were described as a “treasure trove” enhancing Tehran’s offensive posture. The breach could be linked to the 11 November 2024 cyberattack targeting an Israeli nuclear facility, although Tel Aviv has not publicly commented. The move came amid heightened regional tensions. A public disclosure remains likely in the coming days and would mark a significant escalation in Iran-Israel hostilities. The release could prompt retaliatory cyber or covert operations by Tel Aviv and raises the risk of targeted strikes against Iranian-linked assets.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Withdrawal from military base signals intensifying insurgency in central Mali
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; insurgency; internal conflict
In Mali, on 7 June Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) announced that they would not return to the military base in Boulkessi, Mopti region, after 100 soldiers and Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) personnel were killed by Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) at the base on 31 May. Military bases in Segou and Mopti regions have been the primary targets of JNIM’s attacks since February, with the proliferation of IEDs limiting Bamako’s ability to reinforce military installations in the centre of the country. The government has launched a series of airstrikes and counter-offensives in response to the attack but have not effectively curbed JNIM’s influence. This and the increased pressure from JNIM affiliate Katiba Macina along the border with Burkina Faso indicate that military bases will face a heightened risk of attacks in the coming weeks as JNIM looks to press its advantage.
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