Americas: ELN launches third armed strike in Colombia’s Choco department
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; business disruptions
In Colombia, on 25 July the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerilla group launched a two-day armed strike – its third in 2025 – in Choco department, prompting a strengthening of military operations. This came as a response to a security force operation on 20 July during which six ELN members were arrested and communication material, weapons and drones were seized. The ELN alleged that the local population was tortured to obtain information on their camps’ locations, claims the government denied. The ELN’s earlier armed strikes – including restrictions on mobility and commercial activity – occurred amid violent clashes with the Gulf Clan over strategic territory. The second strike led to a government deployment of more than 3,600 soldiers to Choco department. Risks of repeated armed strikes, and associated violence and business disruption, amid a heightened security presence will remain heightened in the short to medium term.
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Asia Pacific: Thailand and Cambodia secure ceasefire following five days of clashes
Sectors: all
Key Risks: accidental conflict; regional escalation; violent clashes;
On 28 July Thailand and Cambodia reached a ceasefire agreement mediated by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur. The ceasefire followed five days of clashes along the Thai-Cambodian border in Ubon Ratchathani, Si Sa Ket, Surin and Buri Ram provinces. At least 35 people were killed, and over 200,000 were evacuated from the border in both countries since 24 July. Acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai stated that the agreement “reflected Bangkok’s desire to find a peaceful resolution”. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet similarly expressed optimism that the agreement would serve as a “foundation for future de-escalation”. The ceasefire will come into effect at midnight on 29 July, with regional military commanders from both countries meeting at 07:00 local time. Despite the ceasefire’s implementation, the risks of continued tensions and miscalculations remain high in the short term.
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Eurasia: Russia’s Central Bank lowers key interest rate to 18 per cent amid recession risk
Sectors: economic; monetary
Key Risks: economic and business risks
In Russia, on 25 July the Central Bank lowered its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18 per cent in an effort to revive lending and boost stagnating economic growth, after persistently high inflation showed signs of easing. It was the biggest such cut since May 2022, when the central bank cut the rate by 300 bps amid the economy’s recovery from the initial shock of Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The move came after senior officials and business leaders complained that high rates were choking the economy. The central bank kept high rates since July 2023 to contain an overheating economy from a surge in military spending. On 19 June Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned the country was on the brink of a recession, calling for changes in monetary policy. Further rate cuts are likely.
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Europe: Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban threatens to block EU budget unless funds released
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic and business risks
In Hungary, on 26 July Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatened to block the EU’s new seven-year budget unless Brussels releases all suspended funds to the country. The EU froze EUR22bln in COVID-19 recovery and cohesion funds for the country over democratic backsliding and rule of law concerns in 2022. While it released approximately EUR10.2bln in December 2023 after the government adopted legislation to strengthen judicial independence, the rest has yet to be unblocked. Orban accused the European Commission of “financial blackmail,” alleging that his political rivals would make concessions to secure the funding, including supporting Ukraine’s EU membership. Orban’s position ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary elections appears increasingly weak, with the Tisza party of Peter Magyar dominating the polls. Assertive political moves on the EU level are likely a part of his strategy to rally conservative and Euro-sceptic support ahead of the April 2026 vote.
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MENA: PMF intra-faction tensions erupt at Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry in Baghdad
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; targeted attacks; political stability; governability; political polarisation
In Iraq, on 27 July two people were killed and 12 others were injured when gunmen stormed the Ministry of Agriculture’s office as a new director was being sworn in al-Durah district of Baghdad. A high-level investigative committee stated 14 Hashd al-Sha’abi Shi’ah militia (PMF) members from brigades 45 and 46 were arrested by counterterrorism units. Violence reportedly erupted when an outgoing PMF-linked official refused to cede the director’s post to a newly appointed successor from the same group, prompting the appointee to return with armed supporters, leading to a gunfight between rival factions. Although it is formally part of state security forces, the PMF is a Shi’ah paramilitary umbrella group with Iran-backed factions. Intra-faction clashes over administrative control are likely to escalate as competition within state institutions intensifies ahead of the 11 November parliamentary elections.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Clashes between military and Jubaland forces worsen Somali security crisis
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional conflict; violent clashes; political instability; governability
In Somalia, on 28 July clashes broke out between the Somali National Army (SNA) and regional forces from the semi-autonomous region of Jubaland in Doolow and Beled Hawo, Gedo region. Unverified reports claim that Ethiopian soldiers, supporting Jubaland forces, captured a camp operated by the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) in Doolow. Beyond growing fractures between the federal government and Jubaland over constitutional changes, armed clashes raise the risk of foreign intervention. Both Ethiopia and Kenya consider Jubaland a key security partner in counter-terrorism. The alleged operation by Ethiopian soldiers in Gedo region threatens to break down the precarious rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu and undermine the troop allocation for the new African Union (AU) mission. Internal conflict risks will remain high as Jubaland and Mogadishu are unable to reach a political settlement over constitutional reforms.
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