Americas: Former president Bolsonaro’s supporters protest across Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political polarisation
In Brazil, on 3 August former president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters protested in several major cities against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, demanding amnesty for those involved in the alleged January 2023 coup attempt. Protesters carried Brazilian and US flags, in reference to US President Donald Trump – Bolsonaro’s staunch ally. This came after on 30 July Trump’s administration sanctioned Moraes – accusing him of authorising arbitrary pre-trial detentions and suppressing freedom of expression – and imposed 50 per cent tariffs on the country. On 18 July Moraes imposed precautionary measures on Bolsonaro, accusing him of attempting to involve US authorities in a wider probe into Bolsonaro’s alleged 2022 coup plotting. Washington’s support for Bolsonaro could heighten the country’s political polarisation, raising risks of further protests by supporters of both Bolsonaro and Lula.
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Asia Pacific: New Caledonia’s pro-independence party rejects French autonomy proposal
Sectors: all; mining
Key Risks: civil unrest; political violence; vandalism
In New Caledonia, on 31 July the territory’s oldest pro-independence party, the Union Caledonienne (UC), formally rejected the Bougival Accord, a proposal drafted by officials from both Paris and Noumea to elevate the territory’s status to a French state. The proposal, introduced on 12 July, would increase New Caledonia’s sovereignty by expanding its judicial and diplomatic capabilities in exchange for greater voting rights for non-indigenous residents. However, UC officials – whose supporters rioted and greatly damaged nickel mining infrastructure throughout May 2024 – criticised the proposal as insufficient, demanding full independence. The French parliament is expected to vote on the Accord before end-2025, with a referendum set to be held in New Caledonia by February 2026 if it is approved by Paris. Renewed unrest targeting the mining industry cannot be ruled out if the Accord fails to address chronic issues surrounding autonomy.
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Eurasia: US envoy Witkoff to visit Moscow ahead of 8 August deadline to end fighting in Ukraine
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land, sanctions
On 4 August US President Donald Trump stated that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would visit Moscow on 6-7 August ahead of Trump’s 8 August deadline for Russia to make progress in talks on ending the war in Ukraine. This came after on 28 July Trump shortened his deadline from 50 to 10-12 days, raising pressure on Moscow. Trump threatened Russia with “very severe tariffs” if a peace deal was not reached, which would include secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil and other products. Washington also renewed military aid to Ukraine through European NATO allies amid frustrations with Moscow’s perceived stalling of peace talks. Moscow appears unwilling to depart from its maximalist demands despite having privately received major concessions from Trump, and has intensified its aerial attacks on Ukraine. Further sanctions appear increasingly likely but may not be sufficient to force Moscow to the negotiating table.
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Europe: Tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina high as appeals court confirms Dodik’s sentence
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, on 1 August the appeals chamber of the state court confirmed a prison sentence for Republika Srpska’s President Milorad Dodik, who was sentenced in February for disregarding orders of the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, in July 2023. Following the ruling, Dodik stated he did not accept the verdict, adding he would seek help from Serbia, Russia and the “new US administration”. He also called on political parties not to participate in potential snap elections, vowing to “deploy the police to prevent any polling stations being set up”. Dodik’s lawyer added that he would appeal to the Constitutional Court. Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison – which can be exchanged for a fine of EUR52 per day of prison time, under the country’s law – and a six-year ban on political activities. The case will sustain the heightened political stability risks.
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MENA: Poll in Israel shows sharp decline in public trust in Netanyahu’s government and army
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; political violence; political uncertainty; government instability; civil unrest
In Israel, on 3 August a poll by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) survey revealed 76 per cent of respondents had lost confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The figure dropped from 30 to 23 per cent during the 13-24 June Israel-Iran escalation. Trust in the military also declined, with confidence in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) falling from 83 to 77 per cent and in Army Chief Eyal Zamir from 69 to 62 per cent. 53 per cent viewed the Gaza war goals as mostly achieved, while 61 per cent believed the current military strategy hindered hostage returns. The persistent erosion of trust in both military and political leadership will very likely fuel public discontent, intensify pressure for leadership change ahead of the 2026 legislative elections and heighten near-term political instability, especially if no progress is made on the hostage release or post-Gaza strategic planning.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Clashes in eastern DRC persist despite 18 July ceasefire
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional conflict; regional tensions; political violence
In the DRC, on 2 August clashes broke out between March 23 Movement (M23) rebels and pro-government militias, known as Wazalendo, in Kamakombe, South Kivu province. M23 briefly took control of the village before Wazalendo regained control following an immediate counter-offensive. This was the latest in a series of clashes and offensive actions by both M23 and Wazalendo since the 18 July ceasefire between M23 and Kinshasa came into effect. Wazalendo groups rejected any political settlement with Rwanda-backed M23 in May, stating they would seek a military solution to the conflict. M23 accused the government of reinforcing its positions since the ceasefire. Distrust between both parties will likely lead to further clashes as the government remains unable to enforce the ceasefire. Further clashes also threaten the outlook of the comprehensive peace agreement, which is set to be agreed upon and signed by 18 August.
Click here to access DRC’s Global Intake country profile.
