Americas: 19 killed, at least 71 injured in dissident former FARC rebel attacks in Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes
In Colombia, on 21 August 19 people were killed and at least 71 were injured in two attacks, which President Gustavo Petro attributed to different dissident former FARC rebel factions. In Cali, Valle del Cauca department, six people were killed and 71 were injured in a VBIED attack, near an air force base, that was attributed to Central General Staff (EMC) – the largest dissident former FARC rebel group – led by ‘Ivan Mordisco’. The downing of a helicopter participating in a coca leaf crop eradication operation that left 13 police officers killed in Amalfi, Antioquia department, was attributed to the General Staff of the Blocs and Fronts splinter faction of the EMC. This came amid a recent surge in inter-group violence and the entrenchment of illegal armed groups, underscoring the limitations of Petro’s ‘total peace’ agenda. The risk of further such attacks will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Taiwan to boost defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2026
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political gridlock; political polarisation; regional escalation
In Taiwan, on 21 August the government announced its intention to boost its defence spending by 20 per cent, bringing total expenditures to 3 per cent of GDP, by year-end 2026. The increase, which amounts to TWD949.5bln (US$29bln), will include funding for the Coast Guard and veterans’ pensions for the first time. The decision to boost the budget came amid increasing hostility from Beijing, as well as pressure from Washington to increase its own share of defence expenses. However, the exact budget has yet to be determined, and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party-dominated Legislative Yuan is likely to greatly reduce – or even reject – the final figure, raising the likelihood of political gridlock in its implementation. Simultaneously, any increase in defence expenditures is likely to draw criticism from Beijing which will likely accuse Taiwan of inflaming tensions.
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Eurasia: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan agree to improve transport infrastructure
Sectors: all
Key Risks: business and economic
In Turkmenistan, on 22 August Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan signed agreements on transport, logistics and more at a trilateral summit. The three leaders agreed to support the Middle Corridor trade route and develop ferry links across the Caspian Sea. This followed the 8 August declaration signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia at a summit with US President Donald Trump, which rebranded the Zangezur Corridor as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) and granted Washington rights to develop it. The corridor could revive existing rail routes, boosting both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s roles within the Middle Corridor, although details remain unclear. The Middle Corridor’s importance as an alternative trade route between China and Europe has grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, opening new trade opportunities for Central Asian and South Caucasus countries. While limitations remain, the trilateral summit signals the regions’ determination to improve the corridor’s efficiency.
Click here to access Azerbaijan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: France’s opposition parties threaten to topple PM Bayrou’s government over budget cuts
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In France, on 25 August three main opposition parties – the far-right National Rally (RN), the Greens and the Socialists – stated they would not back a confidence vote in the government over plans for major budget cuts. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced the vote would be held on 8 September as he seeks enough support in parliament for a EUR44bln (US$51.5bln) budget cut proposal. Bayrou is under pressure to lower a deficit that reached 5.8 per cent of GDP in 2024, nearly double the EU’s official limit of 3 per cent. The opposition statements signal that Bayrou could lose the confidence vote, which would lead to a second government collapse in a year. On 4 December 2024 former prime minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed in a no-confidence vote over his attempt to bypass lawmakers to pass a budget with cuts. Political stability risks will remain heightened.
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MENA: Iran’s Jaish al-Adl claims attack on security forces in Sistan and Baluchestan province
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; governance
In Iran, on 22 August at least five police officers were killed in an Jaish al-Adl ambush on two patrol units in the Daman district of Iranshahr, Sistan and Baluchestan province. A police spokesperson stated the officers had been on routine patrol when they came under fire. The Sunni militant group Jaish al‑Adl – designated a terrorist organisation by both Iran and the US – claimed responsibility via the social media platform Telegram. The attackers fled the scene, with security forces launching a wide-scale search operation. The group, active in the country’s southeast provinces and based in Pakistan, also claimed responsibility for the 26 July and 10 August attacks on security forces. Tensions between the Sunni minority and the Shi’ah government are expected to escalate, with the risk of further clashes rising as security forces expand operations.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Rio Tinto suspends activity at Simandou mine in Guinea after worker death
Sectors: mining
Key risks: economic and business risks
In Guinea, on 23 August mining giant Rio Tinto announced the suspension of mining activity at its Simandou iron ore project following the death of a contract worker, without providing details on the nature of the death. The company noted that a “thorough investigation” will be launched, with CEO Jakob Stausholm travelling to the mine. Opacity surrounding the incident has raised concerns over safety and the incident’s potential impact on operations at the mine. Output scheduled for November may be impacted, following multiple previous delays at the mine – one of the world’s largest untapped iron ore deposits. Increased output and lower demand have stabilised iron ore prices with a downturn forecast on greater market supply. Guidance from Rio Tinto on Simandou’s production will inform potential medium term price volatility.
Click here to access Guinea’s Global Intake profile.