Americas: Guyana heads into general elections amid oil boom
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political uncertainty
In Guyana, on 1 September voters will cast ballots in general elections to decide whether President Irfaan Ali’s ruling People Progressive Party (PPP) will preserve its parliamentary majority – holding 33 out of 65 seats in the National Assembly – amid the country’s oil boom that saw it record double-digit economic growth for five consecutive years. President Ali, who is seeking another five-year term, has made massive gains in education and infrastructure, although poverty issues remain. While Ali is expected to secure a second term due to his support among the Indo-Guyanese base, PPPs’ thin majority could be contested by five opposition parties facing it, including Partnership for National Unity (APNU) and Alliance for Change (AFC), which enjoy support among Afro-Guyanese voters. With ethnopolitical divisions heightened amid mutual accusations of electoral interference, the risk of post-electoral unrest will be elevated.
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Asia Pacific: Indonesia to cut lawmakers’ perks following days of violent unrest
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political polarisation; disruptive unrest; violent clashes
In Indonesia, on 1 September President Prabowo Subianto withdrew benefits that had been announced for members of parliament – including the highly controversial monthly housing allowance of US$3,600. The decision came after at least four people were killed since 28 August amid violent countrywide unrest. On 30 August three people were killed and five were injured in an arson attack at the City Legislative Council (DPRD) building in Makassar, South Sulawesi province. Authorities have intensified security measures in the capital, establishing checkpoints throughout the capital Jakarta, carrying out citywide patrols and positioning snipers at key sites, as numerous rallies are expected on 1 September. Nonetheless, at least 500 protesters gathered outside the House of Representatives in Jakarta. The revocation of the lawmakers’ benefits and intensified security presence may de-escalate protests in the short term, although a longer-term policy shift currently remains elusive.
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Eurasia: Europe’s “pretty precise plan” for Ukraine security guarantees uncertain
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land
On 31 August European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Europe was drawing “pretty precise plans” for multinational force deployment to Ukraine as part of security guarantees once the conflict ends. She added that it would have US backing, stating that President Donald Trump reassured her that there “would be a US presence as part of the backstop”. The discussed plan would involve tens of thousands of Europe-led personnel, supported by US command-and-control systems, intelligence and surveillance. However, on 1 September German officials, including Prime Minister Friedrich Merz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, dismissed the comments, stating that any public discussion on ground troops and security guarantees would have to be preceded by Russia’s commitments to a ceasefire. Negotiations over security guarantees are likely to continue, although Moscow is likely to demand significant influence in the mechanism.
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Europe: Increased political stability risks in Romania amid public administration cut disputes
Sectors: all;
Key Risks: political stability; economic and business risks
In Romania, on 29 August the government approved five of six chapters of the second package of austerity measures aimed at lowering the country’s budget deficit. The government sent the first five chapters to parliament, with Prime Minister Ilje Bolojan expected to request endorsement for the chapters on 1 September. The five chapters cover the organisation of the public health system; the management of state-owned companies and regulatory bodies; revisions to pension and retirement rules for magistrates; and corporate taxation, regulation and insolvency procedures. The sixth chapter – on cuts in public administration – was not approved due to disputes between coalition parties. The Social Democrats (PSD) insist on a 25 per cent cut, which Bolojan claims is too small, demanding 45 per cent. The disputes over the public spending cuts signal increased political stability risks during negotiations over austerity measures and implementation.
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MENA: Huthi retaliation intensifies in Yemen and the Red Sea following PM assassination
Sectors: all
Key risks: war at sea; kidnapping; business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruption; cargo transport; regional escalation
In the Red Sea, on 1 September the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Scarlet Ray was targeted by a Huthi ballistic missile off the coast of Saudi Arabia, with no damage or casualties reported. Huthi Military Spokesman Yahya Saree claimed the vessel had ties to Israel. This attack came after on 31 August at least 11 UN staff, including World Food Programme and UNICEF employees, were kidnapped in Sana’a during raids on UN premises. Both incidents suggest Huthi retaliation following the 28 August Israeli strike that killed Huthi Prime Minister Ahmed Ghaleb Nasser al-Rahawi and several ministers. Further Huthi retaliatory operations, including maritime strikes and kidnappings of foreign actors perceived to be aligned with Israel, are very likely in the short term. Disruptions to aid delivery in Huthi-controlled areas are expected, with Red Sea shipping facing elevated risks if the retaliatory cycle persists.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Uptick in militant attacks in Mozambique ahead of restart of LNG plant
Sectors: oil and gas
Key risks: targeted attacks; insurgency; business risks
In Mozambique, on 25 August two civilians were killed by Ansar as-Sunna militants in the town of Uvilili in Palma district, Cabo Delgado province, located 30 km from TotalEnergies’ Afungi camp. Palma district and the wider Cabo Delgado province have seen an uptick in attacks from Ansar as-Sunna after TotalEnergies announced on 18 June that it intended to restart operations at the LNG plant on Afungi Peninsula, Cabo Delgado province, before the end of summer. Security issues are posing a larger issue to restarting operations, with two soldiers from the Special Operations Theatre of Afungi (TOEA) – a force created to protect the Mozambique LNG plant – killed on 15 August. Multiple subcontractors suspended operations, citing the worsening security outlook. Ansar as-Sunna attacks will persist in Cabo Delgado as Maputo and TotalEnergies continue to push forward to restart the Mozambique LNG plant in the coming months.
Click here to access Mozambique’s Global Intake country profile.