Americas: Contractors protest outside state oil firm Pemex’s facilities in Mexico
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: business risks; business disruptions; industrial action
In Mexico, on 9 September dozens of contractors from Veracruz and Oaxaca states – including suppliers and local construction companies – protested outside state-owned oil company Pemex’s facilities in the capital Mexico City, to demand payment for overdue invoices. The debt relates to maintenance, modernisation and equipment supply services carried out in 2023 and 2024. Protesters stated that they had submitted formal requests for payment of arrears, but claimed they had not received a response from Pemex, pledging to continue demonstrations until a payment plan is negotiated. This came amid Pemex’s reliance on the government’s capital injections, debt refinancing, tax breaks and credit lines to address financial struggles. In May Pemex reported US$99bln in financial debt and US$23bln owed to contractors. The risk of similar protests outside Pemex facilities in Salina Cruz, Oaxaca state; Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz state; and Mexico City will remain heightened in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Nepal’s former chief justice Sushila Karki to lead interim government
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; regulatory changes; government instability
In Nepal, on 12 September former chief justice Sushila Karki was sworn into office. The inauguration followed violent country-wide unrest between 8 and 13 September in which 72 people were killed and thousands injured. The unrest was sparked by Kathmandu’s attempt to ban social media on 4 September, fuelling frustrations over corruption and nepotism. On 9 September former prime minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after demonstrators carried out arson attacks against officials’ residences and government buildings. Karki is broadly perceived as holding a ‘clean’ image by the public. While she faced an opposition-led impeachment case in 2017 over alleged interference in executive affairs, the case was later withdrawn due to public pressure. She pledged to hold office for six months, focusing on restoring public trust ahead of anticipated elections on 5 March 2026. Political instability will remain high and further unrest cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Nepal’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US military officials observe Belarus-Russia wargames amid warming ties with Minsk
Sectors: all; aviation
Key Risks: war-on-land; economic risks; business risks; sanctions
In Belarus, on 15 September US military officials were present to observe the ‘Zapad 2025’ joint Russia-Belarus military exercises in the latest sign of warming ties between Washington and Minsk. This came after on 11 September Minsk released 52 political prisoners as part of a deal brokered by the US under which Washington lifted sanctions on the country’s national airline Belavia. The lifting of sanctions was announced by US President Donald Trump’s envoy John Coale following his meeting with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko in Minsk. Opposition leaders warned that the easing could allow Moscow to get airplane parts through Belavia. This came after Minsk released 14 political prisoners on 21 June. Trump’s rapprochement with Lukashenko came as Washington struggles to secure a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin – with whom Lukashenko is a close ally – to end the war in Ukraine. Further such deals are likely.
Click here to access Belarus’ Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Tensions between Russia and Europe intensifying amid Moscow’s air space incursions
Sectors:all
Key Risks: war on land; regional conflict
In Romania, on 15 September Bucharest summoned the Russian Ambassador following a violation of the country’s airspace by a Russian drone on 14 September, which had reportedly pierced around 10 km into the country’s territory and operated there for around 50 minutes. Moscow blamed Kyiv for the incursion, without providing any evidence. This came after Poland intercepted 19 drones in its airspace on 11 September, in what was the biggest such breach since the war began in February 2022. Poland activated NATO’s Article 4 in response to the incident, while NATO announced plans to boost air defence of its eastern flank. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called the airspace violations Moscow’s test of NATO’s reaction without prompting a full-scale response. The incidents have escalated tensions between Russia and Europe, with Moscow likely to continue testing NATO’s unity and response amid continued uncertainty over Washington’s policy.
Click here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profile and here to access Poland’s Global Intake profile.
MENA: Tensions ease in Libya’s capital after GNU-Radaa agreement
Sectors: all
Key risks: violent clashes; targeted attacks; accidental conflict
In Libya, on 12 September the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Deterrence Forces – also known as Radaa – reached a Turkish-brokered agreement to reduce tensions in the capital. The deal followed late-August government reinforcement that pressured Radaa to submit to state authority, averting an immediate large-scale armed conflict. Under the agreement, Radaa will withdraw from Mitiga Airport, which will be secured by a Ministry of Defence battalion, while GNU forces return to their original bases. Mitiga, Ain Zara and al-Jadida prisons will be transferred to the official authorities. The Tripoli Security Directorate will oversee the capital, and armed groups will be confined to a single headquarters, prohibited from political interference. The agreement will likely stabilise Tripoli in the short term, although risks of localised disputes, factional pushback, or delayed implementation could challenge compliance in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Libya’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Clashes intensify as SAF launches offensive in southwest Sudan
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil war; violent clashes; targeted attacks
In Sudan, on 11 September the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) announced the recapture of Bara, North Kordofan state, following days of clashes with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On 7 September the SAF launched a new offensive in the wider Kordofan region, aiming to alleviate the sieges of El-Obeid, North Kordofan state, and El-Fasher, North Darfur state. Successful SAF operations opened supply channels east and north of El-Obeid, linking it to the SAF-controlled Omdurman, Khartoum state. Both the SAF and the RSF also launched multiple drone attacks against key targets in the west and central regions of the country. As the SAF increases pressure on the western regions of the country, the RSF continues to encroach into El-Fasher, with drone and artillery strikes hitting the city daily. Fighting around El-Obeid is likely to further intensify in the coming days as the SAF attacks RSF positions on the outskirts of the strategically important city.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.