Americas: Thousands participate in anti-government protests for second day in Peru
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes
In Peru, on 21 September thousands demonstrated in the second day of anti-government protests in the capital Lima. Violent protests – spearheaded by ‘Generation Z’ youth and various activist groups – erupted on 20 September after President Dina Boluarte’s unpopular government passed a pension reform on 15 September. The reform requires young people to join a private pension fund – disproportionally affecting those with precarious jobs. At least 18 people – including police officers and journalists – have been injured after clashes broke out following the deployment of 5,000 police officers who used pellets, tear gas and physical force to disperse the crowds as they attempted to move towards the Congress. Protesters denounced the security crisis, corruption and the government’s crackdown on initially peaceful protests, demanding justice for 49 victims of police repression during 2022 and 2023 protests. With Boluarte’s disapproval high, the risk of sustained civil unrest will be heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Thailand’s military to keep land crossings with Cambodia closed indefinitely
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land; violent clashes; trade disruptions
In Thailand, on 19 September Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced that the military would keep the country’s land border with Cambodia closed until Phnom Penh is “no longer deemed to be a threat”. Tensions along the land border have remained high despite the 28 July ceasefire. On 17 September 23 Cambodian protesters were injured when Thai security forces fired rubber bullets and deployed tear gas after demonstrators attempted to remove razor wire and assault Thai security personnel. On 19 September Thai authorities announced that they would begin arresting Cambodian nationals who violated Thai sovereignty or attacked Thai security forces, with officials stating a willingness to “go beyond tear gas if protests continue to break out”. The risk of renewed conflict and trade frictions along the border will remain high as both countries seek to enforce territorial claims.
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Eurasia: Moldova to hold parliamentary elections on 28 September
Sectors: all
Key Risks: Political stability; civil unrest
In Moldova, on 28 September voters will head to the polls to elect the country’s next parliament. President Maia Sandu’s pro-EU Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) remains the dominant political force but will face an organised opposition led by the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) which is comprised of pro-Russian parties, including the Party of Socialists of former president Igor Dodon and the Party of Communists of former president Vladimir Voronin. Polls suggest that PAS will secure another victory, although it appears unlikely to win a majority. A 9 September poll even showed BEP ahead of PAS but did not include the diaspora – which tends to vote for pro-European forces. There are concerns of Russian interference, with police raiding over 250 locations across the country on 22 September against alleged Russia-backed efforts to destabilise the country. Political stability and civil unrest risks will remain heightened ahead of and during the vote.
Click here to access Moldova’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: European flight hubs restore most operations after ransomware attack
Sectors: aviation
Key Risks: cyberattacks; transport disruptions; business risks
On 22 September the EU’s cybersecurity agency ENISA announced that it had identified the ransomware that caused disruptions at airports in London, United Kingdom (UK); Berlin, Germany; Brussels, Belgium; and Dublin, Ireland on 19 September, without providing further details. The attack targeted automatic check-in and boarding software from software provider Collin Aerospace, affecting hundreds of flights. Shares in some airlines fell in response to the incident, including the British Airways owner IAG, which fell by 1.2 per cent, as well as easyJet, which fell by 1.4 per cent. Delays continued into 22 September following a weekend of disruptions, although most flights resumed. Foreign involvement in the ransomware – including Russia’s – cannot be ruled out, although authorities stated that such attacks are often also perpetrated by private entities. Cyberattacks in the aviation sector have reportedly increased by 600 per cent in 2024. Further such attacks are likely.
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MENA: Moroccan youth plan nationwide protests demanding education and healthcare reforms
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest
In Morocco, on 17 September the civic platform Moroccan Youth Voice announced nationwide protests for 27 and 28 September in Rabat, Fez, Casablanca, Casablanca-Settat province, and Marrakech, Marrakech-Safi province. On 14 September hundreds protested following the deaths of eight women during cesarean sections in Agadir, Souss-Massa province, triggering residents – especially youth – to organise wider protests demanding urgent and lasting reforms in healthcare and education. The platform has issued detailed protest guidelines emphasising strict non-violence, as well as respect for people and property. The protests are expected to be widely attended, driven by a strong social media campaign, and are likely to remain peaceful. However, a limited security response – including possible arrests or restrained use of force – cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Morocco’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: FARDC shell M23 positions in eastern DRC as peace agreement fractures
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil war; regional conflict; regional escalation
In the DRC, on 21 September the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) reportedly bombed the positions of the Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group in Masisi and Walikale territory, North Kivu province. On the same day, the military denounced a series of targeted attacks by M23 and the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces between 17 and 19 September. Tensions between M23 and Kinshasa have been heightened amid mediation talks in Qatar. Alongside talks between M23 and government officials, the rebel group continued to make advances in the eastern provinces, capturing multiple towns in South Kivu province between 17 and 21 September. Continued M23 advances and reports of major recruitment drives, seen with the reveal of 7,000 new M23 fighters on 14 September, indicate that M23 operations are likely to expand in the coming weeks.
Click here to access the DRC’s Global Intake country profile.