Americas: One protester killed, 12 soldiers injured in violent clashes in Ecuador
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes
In Ecuador, on 28 September one protester was killed and 12 soldiers were injured in violent clashes during protests against the rise of fuel prices in Cotachi, Imambura province. Officials reported the 12 soldiers were injured after being ambushed by “infiltrated terrorist groups” while guarding a convoy transporting food, with President Daniel Noboa accusing demonstrators of having links to organised crime. A human rights watchdog and the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) – the largest indigenous organisation in the country – stated the protester was killed as a result of government “repression”, with the Prosecutor’s Office pledging it would open an investigation into an unlawful use of force. CONAIE called for demonstrations after on 12 September President Daniel Noboa eliminated a fuel subsidy. The risk of further violent clashes amid the government’s crackdown on protests will remain high.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Protest leader Sudan Gurung to run in Nepal’s March 2026 elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; governance; political polarisation
In Nepal, on 27 September Sudan Gurung – widely considered to be one of the leaders of the country’s 8 to 13 September ‘Gen Z’ Protests – announced that he would run for office in the March 2026 general election. 72 people were killed and at least 2,100 were injured during the protests which ousted former prime minister KP Sharma Oli on 9 September. Demonstrators denounced widespread corruption, economic inequality and the 8 September social media ban, enforced after outlets refused to register for government oversight. Gurung stated that his policies would seek to grow the country’s tourism sector, as well as strengthen Kathmandu’s relations with India and China “without external interference”. However, his criticisms of interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki and her cabinet nominations may divide young and anti-corruption voters, potentially impacting his electoral campaign ahead of polls.
Click here to access Nepal’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Protests likely in Moldova after ruling pro-EU PAS party wins general election
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Moldova, on 28 September the pro-European Party of Action of Solidarity (PAS) won the parliamentary elections, securing a majority of 50.2 per cent of the votes. PAS’s strong victory followed polls which suggested the party would fail to reach a majority. Some even projected a narrow victory for the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc led by former president Igor Dodon – which only secured 24.2 per cent. It also came amid efforts to disrupt the election, after on 22 September security forces reportedly dismantled a Russian-backed network trained in Serbia allegedly plotting mass unrest during the election. The opposition called for peaceful demonstrations on 29 September, while police reportedly detained three individuals for planning mass disorder at the protest. Moscow accused Chisinau of preventing Moldovans living in Russia – more likely to back pro-Russian forces – from voting. Civil unrest risks will remain heightened in the coming days.
Click here to access Moldova’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Czechia to hold parliamentary elections; ANO on track to win
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Czechia, citizens will head to the polls on 3-4 October to elect the country’s next parliament. The opposition ANO (Yes) party of former prime minister Andrej Babiš is widely expected to win with around 30 per cent of the vote. Yes seeks to form a minority government but could also enter a coalition with the right-wing populist SPD party, the pro-Russian Enough party, and/ or the right-wing Motorists party, depending on whether the latter two reach the 5 per cent threshold to enter parliament. The ruling Together and its potential allies – the Pirate Party and the Mayors – currently appear unlikely to secure enough seats for a majority. While this could change if the three parties manage to mobilise undecided voters, an ANO-led government remains the most likely scenario.
Click here to access Czechia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: UN reinstates sanctions on Iran over nuclear programme
Sectors: all
Key risks: sanctions; economic risks; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Iran, on 28 September the UN reinstated sanctions against Tehran, reimposing an arms embargo, restrictions on uranium enrichment and missile activities and travel and asset bans on dozens of individuals and entities. The move followed a “snapback” mechanism triggered by the E3 (France, Germany and the UK) on 28 August over Tehran’s violations of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran denounced the decision, vowing retaliation and recalling its ambassadors to the E3. Israel hailed the sanctions, while Russia rejected their legality. Iranian domestic hardliners will almost certainly push for withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and enrichment to weapons-grade levels. Tehran may also escalate missile and proxy activity to signal defiance. Diplomatic prospects remain fragile in the short term. Israel will likely exploit Iran’s weakened position through renewed strikes or covert actions, leaving Tehran stuck between escalation and restraint amid a strained economy.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Protests against power cuts and corruption rock Madagascar’s capital
Sectors: all
Key risks: disruptive unrest; civil unrest; political violence; business disruptions
In Madagascar, five protesters were reportedly killed and widespread looting was reported between 25 and 28 September after protests broke out in six of the seven largest cities in the country, including the capital Antananarivo, against power cuts, water shortages and systemic corruption. On 24 September the ‘Leo Delestage’ (Fed up with power cuts) movement called for protests following an 11 September announcement of further restrictions to power and water supply by the state power and water company Jirama. Since 25 September multiple clashes were reported between protesters and police forces and several businesses were looted between 25 and 28 September. The protesters issued six demands to end the protests, including the resignation of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay’s government. Civil unrest and political violence risks are likely to persist, as Leo Delestage stated that protests would resume in 48 hours if its demands were not met.
Click here to access Madagascar’s Global Intake country profile.