Americas: Four killed in US military strike on drug-smuggling vessel off the coast of Venezuela
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Venezuela, on 3 October four people were killed in a US military strike against an alleged drug-smuggling vessel in the Caribbean sea off the country’s coast. This came after three US military strikes on alleged narcotrafficking vessels in the Caribbean Sea on 2, 15 and 19 September killed 17 people, with confirmed three out of four targeting boats originating from the country. This came amid Washington’s escalating operations against “narco-terrorism” in the region, with US President Donald Trump declaring on 2 October that drug cartels were considered unlawful combatants with whom the US was in “armed conflict”. On 29 September President Nicolas Maduro expanded his security powers for 90 days in case of a US military incursion, following reports that Washington was considering attacks on cartels via land in the country. With further strikes likely, the risk of escalation cannot be ruled out.
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Asia Pacific: Sanae Takaichi likely to become prime minister of Japan
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; regulatory changes
In Japan, on 4 October former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi secured victory in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s leadership race, the party’s fifth in five years. The race, triggered by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s 7 September resignation, went to a runoff vote between Takaichi and Agricultural Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. Takaichi secured 185 out of 341 votes, while Koizumi won 156. Takaichi’s campaign focused on economic stimulation by lowering income tax, providing food and energy security subsidies and increasing funding for artificial intelligence development. As LDP lost majority in both houses of parliament on 20 July, Takaichi requires parliamentary and royal approval. With opposition unity against her nomination highly unlikely, she is expected to be approved at parliament’s next session on 15 October.
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Eurasia: Further unrest likely in Georgia amid crackdown on opposition following violent protests
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
In Georgia, on 5 October the Interior Ministry announced further arrests and increased pressure on anti-government protests in the coming days. This came after at least five opposition figures were charged with attempting to overthrow the government following the 4 October violent protests in Tbilisi, during which at least 27 people were reportedly injured. Thousands of people gathered in Freedom Square to protest against the Georgian Dream government. Protesters then marched towards the presidential residence which some of them attempted to storm. Police used tear gas, water cannons and pepper spray in response. The protest coincided with the municipal election and the 311th day of protests over the November 2024 suspension of the country’ EU accession bid. Further arrests and a crackdown on opposition are likely, sustaining civil unrest risks.
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Europe: Political stability risks increased in France after PM Lecornu resigns
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governability; governance; political impasse; political polarisation; political uncertainty
In France, on 6 October Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned hours after announcing his new government in the evening on 5 October. The new government lineup was reportedly nearly identical to the one of his predecessor Francouis Bayrou, whose government collapsed on 8 September. This triggered criticism from parties across the political spectrum in the National Assembly. Lecornu stated that “the conditions were not fulfilled for him to carry out his function as prime minister,” blaming a lack of compromise among parliamentary parties. Following his resignation, some opposition parties called for snap elections and for President Emmanuel Macron to resign. It was not immediately clear how Macron would proceed, although the chances that a newly appointed prime minister could form a government and pass a budget are low, making snap parliamentary elections increasingly likely.
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MENA: Car-ramming attacks increase across the West Bank
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; political violence
In Gaza and the West Bank, on 4 October a woman was injured in a car-ramming attack at the Bidu checkpoint near Jerusalem, in the West Bank. The attacker exited his vehicle and tried to flee toward Bidu but was detained by Border Police after they fired warning shots. The incident followed two similar attacks in the West Bank on 28 and 30 September, in which an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier was killed and two teenagers were injured. The recent attacks suggest a broader escalation of unrest in the West Bank. In response, the IDF is likely to increase surveillance and expand security operations, including tighter controls at checkpoints and more frequent patrols. This heightened security posture may lead to further restrictions on movement for Palestinian residents. As tensions continue to rise, the possibility of similar attacks spreading into Israel cannot be ruled out.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Instability risks persist ahead of 12 October presidential vote in Cameroon
Sectors: all
Key risks: disruptive unrest; civil unrest; political violence; political stability; political polarisation; government instability; business disruptions
In Cameroon, voters will head to the polls on 12 October to select the country’s next president in an election with heightened instability risks regardless of the outcome. 92-year-old President Paul Biya’s attempt to secure an 8th successive term has faced significant public opposition as well as the defection of two cabinet members-turned-political challengers. Denouncements to Biya’s readiness to run for president have been popularised by the youth, including his own daughter. However, his influence over key levers of the state, including the electoral commission and security forces, strengthen his re-election bid. Despite the relatively high levels of political stability achieved under his tenure, an extension to his rule will raise the risks of widescale unrest. Conversely, a 15 July reshuffle of military leaders consolidating Biya’s control over security forces will deepen his resistance to handing over power should he lose the vote.
Click here to access Cameroon’s Global Intake country profile.