Americas: Bolivia gears up for presidential runoff on 19 October
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political polarisation; governance
In Bolivia, on 19 October voters will elect President Luis Arce’s successor in the run-off election, with the winner set to take office on 8 November. A recent IPSOS-Ciesmori poll showed right-wing former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga of the Alianza coalition in the lead with 44 per cent of the vote, ahead of centrist Christian Democratic Party’s Rodrigo Paz’s 36.2 per cent. Paz secured 32.18 per cent while Quiroga followed with 26.9 per cent of the vote in the historic 17 August general elections, which marked the end of the leftist MAS party’s almost two-decade rule under President Arce and former president Evo Morales. With MAS’s marginal legislative representation and no party commanding a congressional majority, the new government will face heightened governance risks in a fragmented political landscape amid a deep economic crisis marked by high inflation and shortages of basic goods.
Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Indonesia’s government confirms recession allowance hike for all lawmakers
Sectors: all
Key Risks: corruption; disruptive unrest; violent clashes
In Indonesia, House of Representatives Deputy Speaker Dasco Ahmad confirmed that lawmakers had begun receiving an increased recess allowance of IDR700m (US$42,300) per parliamentary recess as of 3 October. The allowances – which have nearly doubled, up from IDR400m (US$25,316) in H1 2025 – are intended to support in-constituency work, such as campaigning duties during recess periods. Previous lawmaker benefit increases triggered country-wide civil unrest on 25 August, which flared into violent demonstrations after police accidentally killed a motorcycle delivery driver on 28 August. Dasco stated that parliament was developing a digital reporting tool, open to the public, to help prevent corrupt practices in fund management and allocations. However, the allowance raise – or the perception of the allowance being poorly managed or embezzled – increases the risk of re-igniting anti-corruption demonstrations in the short-to-medium term.
Click here to access Indonesia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Trump states he may provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 12 October US President Donald Trump stated he may provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles if the war with Russia is not settled. He added that such a decision would be “a new step of aggression.” The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Perskov stated that the topic of Tomahawks – which have a range of 2,500 km – was a major concern to Russia, adding that it would be a serious escalation. Trump stated that the topic had already been discussed with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, adding long-range weapons would be only used for military targets. Separately, the Financial Times reported that US intelligence has been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian oil facilities for months, including with route planning and timing. The move signals Trump’s increasing assertiveness towards Russia following unsuccessful efforts to negotiate peace. The US is likely to increase pressure on Moscow to enter negotiations.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Efforts to form government in Czechia at risk over racist posts of FM candidate
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; government instability; political stability
In Czechia, on 10 October ANO party leader Andrej Babis unveiled a 16-member cabinet plan which includes the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the Motorists. Under the plan, the SPD will have three Ministries, including the Defence Ministry, while Motorists will have four, including the Foreign Ministry. Motorists proposed the party’s president Filip Turek as the Foreign Minister. However, on 11 October local media found and published Turek’s old social media posts which included severely racist, xenophobic and misogynist remarks. Babis is set to meet the Motorists party late on 13 October to discuss the posts – which Turek claims are fake. While Babis will likely push for Turek’s exclusion from the government, the Motorist party stated they would not enter the government without him. The affair risks prolonging government formation talks.
Click here to access Czechia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Ceasefire holds in Gaza as Israel and Hamas complete first phase of exchange
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; terrorism; political uncertainty; governance; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Israel, Gaza and the West Bank, on 13 October Tel Aviv freed around 2,000 Palestinian detainees while Hamas released the 20 surviving Israeli hostages under the US-brokered ceasefire announced on 8 October and implemented on 10 October. The truce followed two years of war that began after Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack, which prompted Israel’s extensive military campaign. Limited aid deliveries have since resumed to Gaza, and displaced civilians are cautiously returning to destroyed neighbourhoods. Washington deployed 200 troops to Tel Aviv to help coordinate the implementation, as Egypt prepares to host a summit on Gaza’s post-war governance on 13 October. Key issues remain unresolved, including Hamas’ disarmament, Israel’s withdrawal timeline and the framework for Palestinian statehood. Any breakdown in negotiations or renewed violence could jeopardise the fragile truce, with hardliners on both sides and worsening humanitarian conditions posing major risks.
Click here to access Israel’s and here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake country profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Opposition calls for daily protests raise civil unrest risks in Ivory Coast
Sectors: all
Key risks: disruptive unrest; civil unrest; political violence
In Ivory Coast, on 11 October at least 237 people were arrested during demonstrations calling for the reinstatement of disqualified opposition candidates in Abidjan, Abidjan district. On 12 October former president Laurent Gbagbo and head of the opposition Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI) Tidjian Thiam, who were barred from the 25 October presidential election on 8 September, vowed to hold daily demonstrations until the election on 25 October. On 10 October police in Abidjan banned the protest, stating it would disrupt public order. Protests have become more frequent since Gbagbo, Thiam and several other candidates were disqualified from the vote. Civil unrest risks are likely to increase in the coming weeks. In addition, a high likelihood of protests combined with heavy-handed police response will increase the risk of political violence in the short term.
Click here to access Ivory Coast’s Global Intake country profile.