Americas: Washington announces tariffs on Colombia, end to US aid amid escalating tensions
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks; trade disruptions; targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Colombia, on 19 October US President Donald Trump announced Washington would enact tariffs on the country – in addition to the 10 per cent already levied – and slash aid amid escalating tensions with President Gustavo Petro’s government. Trump referred to Petro as an “illegal drug leader”, threatening US intervention if Bogota did not act against drug trafficking networks. This came amid Washington’s campaign against ‘narco-terrorism’ in the region, with increasing pressures on Petro’s administration due to accusations of his ‘total peace agenda’ bolstering illegal armed groups and coca cultivation – which reached record volumes in 2024. Petro has been a staunch critic of the US military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean Sea, including the latest on 16 October, allegedly linked to the country’s National Liberation Army rebels. The risk of Washington’s expanding clash with Bogota will be heightened.
Click here to access Colombia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Mongolia to select new PM within 30 days following Zandanshatar’s ouster
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; regulatory changes
In Mongolia, on 17 October lawmakers ousted former prime minister Gombojav Zandanshatar from office after he failed to survive a no-confidence vote, with 71 votes in favour and 40 in opposition. The no-confidence vote was held after he was heavily criticised for shifting policy to mandate exporters pay royalties based on domestic, rather than higher international, commodity prices, potentially damaging the budget by reducing state revenues from the sale of critical commodities, primarily to Russia and China. On 27 September Zandanshatar also lost the role of the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) chairman to Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve in the party’s internal leadership election. President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh has 30 days to appoint a new prime minister, to be approved by parliament. While no clear nominee has emerged, Dashzegve is likely to be a frontrunner for the position given his leadership as MPP chairman.
Click here to access Mongolia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Trump and Putin plan fresh summit on Ukraine war in Budapest ‘within two weeks’
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 16 October US President Donald Trump stated that he agreed on a new summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, adding that they could meet in the next two weeks in Budapest. Trump held a two-hour-long phone call with Putin he described as “productive”, touting progress in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. Putin reportedly offered to exchange small parts of Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast in exchange for full control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in an apparent concession. Subsequently, on 17 October Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Washington would not supply Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles – as recently floated by Trump – following the two leaders’ meeting at the White House. Trump reportedly urged Zelensky to agree to Putin’s terms in a heated exchange, signalling renewed US pressure on Ukraine to accept major concessions. Significant progress in peace talks remains unlikely.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Voters in Ireland to elect their next president
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political stability
In Ireland, on 24 October citizens will head to the polls to elect the country’s next president. It will be a two-way race between Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and independent Catherine Connolly. Fianna Fail’s candidate, Jim Gavin, withdrew his candidacy on 5 October after local media revealed that he had failed to register a property he was renting and did not refund EUR3,300 in overpayment he had received from one of his tenants. However, Gavin has remained on the ballot paper as he withdrew from the race after the official registration, meaning voters can effectively still vote for him. Left-wing Connolly currently leads polls with around 38 per cent, while support for Humphreys hovers around 20 per cent. Given limited presidential powers, no major policy changes are expected regardless of the outcome.
Click here to access Ireland’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Unknown gunmen attack parliamentary candidate’s office in Iraq
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; political polarisation; targeted attacks
In Iraq, on 18 October two bodyguards were injured when the office of parliamentary candidate, Muthanna al-Azzawi, was targeted by unknown gunmen in al-Yusufiyah district, south-west of Baghdad. Al-Azzawi – a member of the Baghdad Provincial Council and a candidate from the centrist Sunni coalition Azm Alliance – was unharmed. Authorities launched an investigation and security forces increased patrols in the area. The attack followed the killing of a parliamentary candidate in a car bomb explosion on 15 October and the arson of the office of a Yazidi candidate for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) on 16 October, highlighting security risks ahead of the 11 November parliamentary elections. Such violence risks eroding public confidence and may lead to instability and unrest. Further targeted attacks on political figures are likely in the run-up to the elections.
Click here to access Iraq’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Kinshasa and M23 sign agreement to monitor ceasefire in eastern DRC
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional conflict; civil war; political violence
On 14 October representatives from the DRC and the Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group signed an agreement in Qatar to establish a joint body to monitor a future permanent ceasefire. The breakthrough happened against the tide, with clashes between M23 and government forces intensifying despite both parties agreeing to a ceasefire on 18 July. Worsening relations with Rwanda over its continued military presence in the east of the DRC has lowered the prospects of a ceasefire persisting, with reports of M23 recruiting 17,000 fighters in September and October further reducing the prospects. Despite the 14 October agreement, M23 expressed little public interest in slowing down the conflict with M23 commander-in-chief Sultani Makenga threatening to push to Kinshasa to remove a “bad regime”. Clashes between M23 and government forces are likely to persist as specific details of the ceasefire monitoring mechanism are set to be defined.
Click here to access DRCs Global Intake country profile.