Americas: US presidential election too close to call
Sectors: all
Key Risks: protests, civil unrest
In the United States (US), on 5 November voters will elect the next president. Polls suggest that the race between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump is too close to call. Harris appears to have a slight advantage nationally, but polls suggest that the margins in key swing states are well within the margin of error. Both candidates have campaigned extensively in the Rust Belt in recent weeks, with the contest particularly close in the vital state of Pennsylvania. While the race is tight, it is plausible that either could win an electoral college landslide. Irrespective of who wins, there is an elevated risk of demonstrations by supporters of the losing candidate. The risk of civil unrest is higher if Trump loses, as he is likely to cast doubt on the integrity of the election.
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Asia Pacific: Rebel group seizes Myanmar’s final Kachin state border crossing with China
Sectors: all
Key Risks: trade disruption; government instability
In Myanmar, on 4 November reports emerged that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) secured the final junta-held border crossing with China in Kachin state on 31 October. This came amid the announcement that the junta leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, would visit China for the first time since seizing power in a coup d’etat in February 2021. The seizure of the border crossings poses a significant economic risk for China in Kachin state, where Beijing has invested considerable funds into local rare earth mining operations. The seizure of the border crossings was both predicted and protested by Beijing, though a KIA spokesman informed Chinese representatives that fighting would continue “until the military was defeated”. Although Hlaing’s trip to China is expected to focus on China-Myanmar bilateral relations and economic assistance, discussions surrounding conflict in border areas cannot be ruled out.
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Eurasia: Russian forces approaching Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 30 October officials acknowledged that their forces withdrew from the town of Selydove, located approximately 18 km south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. This will allow Russian forces to use the E50 highway which connects Selydove and Pokrovsk to advance to the latter town. Pokrovsk has been the centre of Russian forces’ efforts in the area since July due to its important role as a major logistics hub. However, with the winter approaching, the offensive has recently intensified. Ukrainian officials are preparing for a long battle over the town, erecting barricades and building fortifications, with military experts warning that such a battle will likely take months. Russian forces are likely to continue advancing towards the town in the coming days, with reports emerging on 3 November that they had captured the village of Vyshneve in the area.
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Europe: Germany’s ruling coalition further weakened by rift over economic policy
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; economic stagnation
In Germany, on 1 November a paper by the leader of the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner was leaked, deepening a rift within the three-way ruling coalition. Lindner’s paper called for an economic overhaul to cut costs that contradicted the government’s policies, proposing to cut social service payments, ending special funds for German reunification and following less ambitious climate regulations. This came after coalition parties – the FDP, the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD) – lost votes in three regional elections in September, further destabilising Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s already-fragile government. Political infighting has intensified over future spending plans since November 2023, when a constitutional court’s ruling that Berlin had breached a hard limit on public spending triggered a budget crisis. The coalition appears increasingly unlikely to survive until general elections scheduled for September 2025. Political instability will increase.
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MENA: UNSMIL mandate extended in Libya to stabilise political process
Sectors: all; government; oil and gas
Key risks: political stability; peace; economic recovery
In Libya, on October 31 the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2755, renewing the mandate for the Stabilisation Mission in the country (UNSMIL). The goal aims to advance a peaceful solution to Libya’s political turmoil which continues to paralyse the country. The renewal came amid slow economic recovery driven by Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announcing the resumption of operations on 6 October after the country’s largest oil fields were shut down in August by the Eastern Government, which does not recognise the UN-backed Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli. UNSMIL’s mandate includes pushing for free and fair elections. After over 10 years of stalling and cancellations, reaching that goal remains unlikely, despite the slow economic recovery. New elections have not yet been announced and a renewed outbreak of violence cannot be ruled out.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Mauritius to hold general election on 10 November
Sectors: all
Key risks: political continuity; political stability
In Mauritius, on 10 November citizens will vote in a general election in which incumbent Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth is widely expected to win. Amid strong rural support and an improving economy, the Mouvement Socialiste Militant (MSM) party – which leads the coalition government – is likely to see its vote share decline against a backdrop of democratic backsliding, with concerns surrounding press freedom and weaponisation of the police. A wiretapping scandal involving alleged leaked conversations of public figures since mid-October added to concerns, including an alleged conversation of a police commissioner in which he requested an alteration to a report of a person who died in police custody. In response, the communications regulator ordered internet service providers to restrict access to social media, although this has since been lifted. While prospects of social unrest remain low regardless of the election result, the opposition coalition will likely challenge an incumbent victory in the courts.
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