Americas: Ruling may further delay count of Puerto Rico’s 5 November election result
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability
In Puerto Rico, on 27 November a judge issued a ruling in response to a lawsuit. It ordered the State Elections Commission (EC) to count early votes following ID verification – threatening to further delay the certification process of the 5 November gubernatorial election result. On 21 November voters affiliated with the pro-statehood party led by Jennifer Gonzales – who won the race with 40 per cent of the vote, according to preliminary results – filed a lawsuit in response to their early votes undergoing additional verification despite compliance with all the requirements. The Popular Democratic party announced plans to appeal the ruling after it requested an EC investigation into irregularities with more than 40 ballots. The law mandates the certification process be completed by 31 December, in time for the 2 January swearing-in. The risk of further delays and political instability will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Impeachment case filed against Philippines’ Vice President Sara Duterte
Sectors: all
Key Risks: governability; political polarisation; government instability
In the Philippines, on 2 December the Akbayan party announced that an impeachment complaint case had been officially filed against Vice President Sara Duterte by leading civil society groups and former officials. The complaint outlined Duterte as having committed “constitutional violations, graft, corruption, bribery and other high crimes”, including alleged misuse of confidential finances and betrayal of public trust. The filing followed Duterte’s 24 November claim to have preemptively hired an assassin to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., his wife and the Speaker of the House if Duterte were to be killed, though the impeachment filing did not name this revelation directly. Marcos himself stated he did not wish to seek impeachment against Duterte, instead describing the ongoing political feud as a “storm in a teacup”. However, her critics have accused her of “desecrating institutions”, signalling that Duterte’s removal from office cannot be ruled out.
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Eurasia: Anti-government protests escalate after Georgia’s ruling party suspends EU bid
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; violent clashes
In Georgia, on 1 December at least 44 people – including 16 police officers – were injured and hundreds were detained after four nights of protests in Tbilisi. Protests over the disputed 26 October election results – triggered by claims of election fraud – escalated after on 28 November the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party suspended Tbilisi’s EU accession talks. GD stated it would not enter accession talks until 2028, accusing Brussels of “blackmail” and attempts to “organise a revolution”. On 30 November Washington halted its strategic partnership with Tbilisi over GD’s “undemocratic actions”. GD demanded opposition President Salome Zourabichvili step down when her term ends on 16 December, while she stated she would remain in office as the parliament is “illegitimate”. On 27 November three of four opposition parties withdrew from parliament. With most citizens strongly favouring EU integration, the political crisis will deepen and further violent protests are likely.
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Europe: Kosovo arrests eight over water canal explosion, accuses Belgrade of “terrorist” act
Sectors: all
Key Risks: sabotage attacks; internal conflict; civil unrest
In Kosovo, on 30 November an explosion damaged the Ibar-Lepenac Canal supplying water to two coal-fired power plants in Varrage, Zubin Potok municipality, in the ethnic Serb-majority area in northern Mitrovica district. The blast caused water cuts but no power cuts in parts of the country. On 1 December police arrested eight suspects and seized weapons and explosives in a raid, stating that most of the suspects were members of the local ethnic Serb group Civilna Zastita (Civil Protection) – which Pristina has declared a terrorist organisation. Pristina accused Belgrade of carrying out a “terrorist” attack, while Belgrade rejected the claims and pledged to cooperate with Pristina’s probe into the explosion. NATO’s Kosovo mission rejected Pristina’s request to deploy security forces. Tensions have been high since the deadly 24 September 2023 Banjska monastery attack in northern Kosovo, and as Pristina cracks down on Serb-operated institutions. Tensions will remain high.
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MENA: HTS in Syria seizes control over large parts of Aleppo amid ‘shock offensive’
Sectors: all
Key risks: rebel insurgency; internal conflict; political stability
In Syria, on 1 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied militant groups occupied large parts of Aleppo, including its International Airport, and reclaimed towns and villages in northern Hama, Hama province. This followed an HTS surprise attack against government-held positions on 27 November prompting government and Russian airstrikes. The groups advanced with minimal resistance from pro-government forces, which announced a temporary troop withdrawal from Aleppo, citing preparations for a counteroffensive. On 29 November HTS rebels arrived in Aleppo and started consolidating their position. Indications of a possible large-scale assault by HTS started emerging around 16 October with reports of regular HTS military exercises. Further escalation is highly likely as fighting erupted in cities across the country, including clashes in Damascus and airstrikes in Idlib.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Tensions rise in Ghana ahead of hotly-contested election on 7 December
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest; governance
In Ghana, on 7 December voters will decide on the country’s next president in one of the most challenging presidential elections in its democratic history, with distrust in state institutions giving rise to the possibility of civil unrest. The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) Vice President and candidate Mahamudu Bawumia is seeking an unprecedented third term for the NPP against former president John Mahama. Amid the potential for disorder in the election aftermath, economic issues are taking centre stage, with aggravation among unemployed young people and pensioners impacted by the debt restructuring programme. Emerging from the worst crisis in a generation, a fresh approach to maximising revenue from natural resources – including overhauling the gold mining industry and clamping down on illegal extraction – will be a key starting point. However, poor results in office mean the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will likely secure a majority.
Click here to access Ghana’s Global Intake profile
