Date first published: 03/12/2024
Key sectors: all
Key risks: ceasefire, regional war, geopolitical tensions
Risk development
On 26 November a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Tel Aviv was secured following negotiations led by the United States (US) and France. The agreement requires Hizbullah militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops to retreat into northern Israel, and 10,000 Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers to deploy in southern Lebanon, alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers, as the sole armed presence. During this transition period, Lebanon and Israel should address land border demarcation. The truce, which took effect on 27 November, is intended as the first step toward a permanent ceasefire agreement.
Why it matters
The ceasefire, initially praised by Lebanese authorities and Hizbullah, quickly led to mutual accusations of violations from both sides. IDF targeted “suspicious” activities near the border, while Hizbullah accused IDF of targeting returning villagers. On 28 November IDF soldiers unilaterally urged civilians to avoid returning to southern villages and imposed a daily curfew. The same day, at least two people were injured in IDF tank fire on a Hizbullah rocket storage facility in Markaba, Nabatiyah province. On 2 December at least nine were killed and three were injured in IDF airstrikes in Talouseh and Hariss, also in Nabatiyah province, after Hizbullah’s “defensive warning strike” on IDF positions in Shebaa Farms, an Israeli-occupied territory claimed by Lebanon.
Washington and Paris believe that Tel Aviv has breached the ceasefire terms, despite Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar assuring his French counterpart that Israel is enforcing the agreement, which requires Hizbullah’s withdrawal from the Israel-Lebanon border area. Although unilateral Israeli military action to enforce the ceasefire was not enshrined in the agreement, the US reportedly issued Tel Aviv a “side letter” of guarantees affirming its right to self-defence if the terms are violated in southern Lebanon. This suggests Israel’s recent attacks do not technically constitute a breach. This complicates the enforcement role of the tripartite mechanism – led by the US and France with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)’s support – and creates ambiguity around the boundaries of Israeli military actions.
Background
The Israel-Hizbullah conflict escalated following Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack on Israel. The conflict entered a “new phase” – as former defence minister Yoav Gallant called it – after Mossad-triggered pagers and walkie-talkie explosions targeted Hizbullah in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon on 17 and 18 September, killing 20 and injuring over 3,000 people. On 30 September Tel Aviv launched a ground invasion on southern Lebanon, aiming to destroy Hizbullah infrastructure and prompting the LAF to withdraw from the border.
Risk outlook
The agreement reflects conditions in Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006 but remained unimplemented. A stronger US-French monitoring mechanism aims to enforce compliance, but the key change lies in the regional balance favouring Israel, bolstered by its military capacities and US support. Similar to Resolution 1701, the truce is unlikely to end the conflict, as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL are expected to be ineffective in monitoring and enforcement. Instead, the ceasefire may shift IDF airstrikes to southern Lebanon, targeting roads and infrastructure used by Hizbullah to transport weapons, likely transforming the crisis into a low-intensity conflict in the medium term. A return to full-scale fighting is improbable in the short term given Hizbullah’s weakened position and domestic dynamics in Israel. On the same day the ceasefire in Lebanon took effect, US President Joe Biden stated a ceasefire in Gaza was under discussion. However, by agreeing to the terms, Hizbullah – and indirectly Iran – have abandoned the strategic link between Gaza and Lebanon, making a lasting ceasefire even more difficult to reach.
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