Americas: Mayor killed amid rising political violence ahead of 5 February elections in Ecuador
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political violence; political instability; gang-related violence
In Ecuador, on 11 January the Mayor of Arenillas, Eber Ponce, was shot five times by a gunman on a motorbike while driving his pickup truck in El Oro province. He died hours later in hospital. Police reported that three others, including a six-year-old child, were also injured. The attack came less than a month before the upcoming 5 February general elections and marked the second mayor assassinated in El Oro province since the August 2023 general elections after the mayor of Portovelo was killed in a similar drive-by shooting on 19 April 2024. More than 30 political figures have been killed since 2023, including presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio who was killed in a shooting attack at a campaign event in the north of the capital Quito on 9 August 2023. The risk of political violence will remain elevated ahead of the upcoming vote.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: President Yoon Suk-yeol faces Constitutional Court trial in South Korea
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governability; disruptive unrest
In South Korea, on 14 January the country’s Constitutional Court will determine whether impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol should be removed from office. The trial will follow Yoon’s attempt to enact martial law on 3 December 2024, which the National Assembly unanimously voted against. President Yoon has since barricaded himself and his security staff at the presidential residence in Seoul. His lawyer, Yoon Kab-keun, announced that Suk-yeol would not be present at the hearing, citing concerns over the president’s safety, which he declared were a result of the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO)’s 3 January attempt “to execute illegal arrest warrants through illegal methods”. If Yoon is removed from office, Choi Sang-mok will likely remain interim president until an official election is held. The risk of political instability and disruptive, though peaceful, unrest will remain elevated in the coming months.
Click here to view South Korea’s Global Intake profile.
Eurasia: US imposes toughest sanctions yet on Russia’s oil industry
Sectors: all; energy; shipping
Key Risks: sanctions; trade disruptions; oil price volatility; geopolitical tensions
In Russia, on 10 January Washington imposed some of the harshest sanctions yet on Moscow’s oil industry, targeting 183 “shadow fleet” vessels, dozens of traders, major oil firms Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas and senior Russian oil executives. London also sanctioned the two firms. On 13 January Brent crude futures soared past US$80 as traders feared supply disruptions from the tightening sanctions. Washington aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the war ahead of the 20 January inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who aims to pressure Kyiv and Moscow into peace talks. The sanctions will further complicate Moscow’s oil exports and cut its revenues. However, it remains uncertain if the sanctions will exert sufficient pressure to act as a useful bargaining chip in future Russia-Ukraine negotiations, as Moscow has thus far been able to evade oil sanctions with its “shadow fleet”.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Protests over Novi Sad train station accident set to continue in Serbia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
In Serbia, on 12 January tens of thousands of people marched in the capital Belgrade as part of a series of protests after 15 people were killed in a canopy collapse at Novi Sad’s train station on 1 November 2024. The protests are led by students who demand accountability for the accident, blaming government corruption and nepotism. Students have been blocking universities in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Nis for weeks as part of the protests. On 10 January they blocked a part of the Belgrade-Zagreb highway in Belgrade. To meet the demands of protesters, the government has published several hundreds of documents related to the incident. However, the students claim several crucial documents are still missing. The perceived insufficient response by the government will sustain the risk of further protests with the potential to turn disruptive in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Arab and European diplomats convene for Syria recovery talks in Saudi Arabia
Sectors: all
Key risks: post-conflict reconstruction; sanctions; regional stability
In Saudi Arabia, on 12 January top diplomats from 17 Arab and European countries met in Riyadh to discuss Syria’s reconstruction, humanitarian situation and future governance. The talks, headed by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his new Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani, focused on sanctions relief, coordinated aid efforts and ensuring stability in the country. The meeting reflected a growing concern over Damascus’ post-conflict recovery under the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led administration headed by Ahmed al-Shara’a. Observers noted divisions over engaging with the former al-Assad government as well as the sanctions debate as key challenges. Both Moscow and Tehran were excluded from participating in the summit. Future agreements between regional states, Western powers and the new administration in Syria will likely depend on balancing humanitarian relief with political accountability and long-term strategic objectives.
Click here to access Saudi Arabia’s and here to access Syria’s Global Intake profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sudan Armed Forces recaptures key city of Wad Madani
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; governability; war-on-land
In Sudan, on 11 January the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan Shield Forces, under former Rapid Support Forces regional commander Abu Aqla Kikil, recaptured the al-Jazirah state capital of Wad Madani. Offensive efforts by the two groups intensified over the last week as several Rapid Support Forces (RSF) positions, including the heavily defended Umm al-Qura, al-Jazirah state, were captured rapidly. The capture of Wad Madani has put the southeast firmly under SAF control. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – known as Hemetti – acknowledged the capture of Wad Madani and vowed to launch a counter-offensive, with SAF incursions into the Blue and White Nile states beaten back by the RSF. Reprisal attacks in the western regions by the RSF following these defeats are highly likely in the coming weeks, with areas in the greater Darfuri region the likely targets.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake profile
