Americas: Heightened civil unrest risks ahead of protesters’ deadline for government in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
In Bolivia, on 16 January supporters of former president Evo Morales suspended protests in the capital La Paz after delivering a letter to President Luis Arce, demanding action on the economic crisis and an end to alleged political persecution against Morales by 22 January. The protests underscored and triggered deepening divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party amid an ongoing power struggle between Arce and Morales – both vying for the 2025 presidential nomination – and their supporters. Morales faces a warrant for his arrest for failing to appear in court over human trafficking and sexual abuse allegations, which he has denounced as legal warfare. Morales enjoys strong popular support from indigenous and rural populations who vowed to protect Morales from the perceived political persecution. The risk of civil unrest, with the potential to turn violent, will remain heightened in the coming days.
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Asia Pacific: Thailand and Myanmar vow to crack down on call centre scam operations
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence; organised crime
In Thailand, on 20 January the government agreed to work with Myanmar’s ruling military junta to crack down on transnational call centre scam operations. The pledge came as part of an Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Digital Ministers’ meeting in Bangkok, which agreed that the scam operations were a growing regional issue. The announcement also followed a high-profile case of Wang Xing, a Chinese actor kidnapped in Thailand on 3 January and taken to Myanmar prior to being rescued on 7 January, as well as the Prime Minister of Thailand being targeted by a phone scam on 14 January. Bangkok and Naypyidaw stated that they would begin their aim by prioritising the strengthening of cybersecurity partnerships, likely raising the occurrence of state security operations tackling organised crime in the region will rise in the coming months.
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Eurasia: Ukraine-Russia peace talks rise on agenda as Trump sworn in as US President
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; geopolitical tensions
In the United States (US), on 20 January Donald Trump was sworn in as US president after pledging to swiftly end the war between Russia and Ukraine once he assumed office. Significant uncertainty remains around the future of US aid for Kyiv. However, Trump’s national security nominees have signalled a more supportive line for Kyiv in recent weeks than during the election campaign. European leaders are increasingly confident that despite a major change in US strategy under Trump, support for Kyiv will continue as Trump pushes for negotiations. However, Trump signalled that Kyiv would need to make key concessions in peace talks, including potentially renouncing ambitions to join NATO and recognising Russia’s de facto control of territories seized in the war. Trump will begin a major push towards peace talks, while Kyiv and Moscow will seek to strengthen their respective positions, risking further short-term battlefield escalations.
Click here to access Ukraine’s and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Opposition file no-confidence motion in bid to oust Slovakia’s PM Fico
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; energy security; inter-state disputes
In Slovakia, on 14 January the head of the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) party, Michal Simecka, announced that all opposition parties united to file a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government over its Russia-friendly foreign policy, including Fico’s December meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fico claimed he had secured new gas supplies in the meeting and threatened to cut off power supplies to Ukraine after Kyiv chose not to extend a gas transit deal with Russia to the EU. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Fico to meet him in Kyiv to discuss the widening dispute, but instead met Simecka on 17 January. Fico looked set to survive the motion as moderate members of the coalition Hlas party – who increasingly clashed with Fico’s Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS) – signalled they would not back the motion. Nevertheless, political instability will remain heightened in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Slovakia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas implemented; remains fragile
Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; political stability
In Gaza, on 19 January a 42-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect after 15 months of war. This first phase includes ending hostilities in Gaza, increased aid deliveries and the release of 33 hostages by Hamas in exchange for 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. On the first day of the ceasefire, Hamas handed three captives to the Red Cross, while Tel Aviv released 90 Palestinian prisoners. If the ceasefire holds, Hamas will release four hostages for 30-50 detainees each on 25 January. In the first phase, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from the centre of Gaza, while future phases will aim for permanent peace and Gaza’s reconstruction. The opposition from far-right Israeli politicians – Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s party quit the government over the ceasefire – and unresolved issues surrounding the deal leave the situation volatile and next phases highly uncertain. A breach of the ceasefire and the potential resumption of IDF airstrikes remain possible.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Seven killed as crackdown looms over Ghana’s illegal mining industry
Sectors: mining
Key risks: internal conflict; environmental degradation; economic risks
In Ghana on 18 January between seven and nine ‘illegal miners’ were killed and 14 other injured in clashes with security forces at the AngloGold Ashanti-operated mining site near Obuasi, Ashanti region. Reports differ, with the military claiming 60 illegal miners breached the facility and fired on them with locally manufactured guns whereas the local leader of the Ghana National Association of Small Scale Miners Kofi Adam accused the military of firing on unarmed miners. There has been an uptick of violent incidents with illegal miners and civilians expressing frustration at environmental degradation. Pressure groups, such as the Ghana Coalition against Galamsey (GCAG), called for immediate government action against galamsey groups. With civilian pressure and new President John Mahama looking to restrict illegal small-scale mining, a crackdown to some extent is likely in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Ghana’s Global Intake profile.
