Americas: The ELN guerilla pledges to continue the “war of liberation” in Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; regional conflict
In Colombia, on 24 January the ELN announced it would continue its “war of liberation” in Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander department, claiming that the dozens of captured members from the 33rd Front of dissident former FARC rebels were “prisoners of war”. The guerillas blamed the government’s abandonment of the region on its failed peace process with dissident former FARC rebels amid the latter’s fractioning. President Gustavo Petro vowed “war” on the ELN, reissued arrest warrants for its leaders and decreed emergency powers in the region in the past week due to the ELN’s attacks on the rebels, demobilised former fighters and civilian leaders. The ELN recently began losing ground in Catatumbo to dissident former FARC rebels, accusing civilians of aiding them. The risk of violent clashes among the warring factions and the military in the region will remain heightened.
Click here to access Colombia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: North Korea vows “toughest stance” towards US amid strategic missile test
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; regional escalation
In North Korea, the government announced that it would adopt the “toughest” approach to growing security cooperation between the US and South Korea. The announcement followed the test of a nuclear-capable strategic cruise missile on 25 January, which state media claimed were capable of hitting targets after traveling 1,500 km in a figure-eight flight pattern. Pyongyang asserted that the missiles were necessary to “counter the US with the toughest counteraction as long as it refuses the sovereignty and security interests of the DPRK”. This echoed the sentiment announced by Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un during the 23 December 2024 plenary meeting of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party. Despite US President Donald Trump’s stated intent to re-engage with Pyongyang, dialogue between the US and North Korea remains unlikely in the short term given Washington’s likely prioritised focus on the Israel-Gaza war and Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Click here to access North Korea’s Global Intake profile.
Eurasia: Hungary lifts veto on extending EU sanctions on Russia by six months
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic and business risks; sanctions
In Hungary, on 27 January Budapest lifted its veto on a sixth-month extension of EU sanctions on Russia. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government had reportedly demanded that Brussels pressure Ukraine to resume gas transit from Russia to Ukraine after Kyiv’s gas transit deal with Moscow expired on 1 January. Following negotiations with Budapest, the EU reportedly agreed to “continue discussions with Ukraine on the supply of Europe via the gas pipeline system in the country,” adding the EU Commission was ready to “associate Hungary and Slovakia in the process.” Budapest’s U-turn also came after US President Donald Trump stated on 22 January that he would impose additional punitive measures on Russia should Moscow fail to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine “soon”. Budapest is likely to stall further sanction extension negotiations.
Click here to access Hungary’s Global Intake profile and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profiles.
Europe: Sweden seizes tanker, investigates damage of Baltic Sea cable link to Latvia
Sectors: all; telecoms; energy
Key Risks: political violence;
In Sweden, on 26 January authorities seized a cargo ship and opened an investigation after a fibre optic cable link to Latvia was damaged in the Baltic Sea. Investigators are examining the Malta-flagged ship Vezhen, anchored near Karlskrona, which reportedly departed from Russia’s Ust-Luga port several days earlier. The damage occurred between the coastal Latvian town of Ventspils and Sweden’s Gotland Island. Latvia sent navy patrols to inspect the ship and stated that two others were also subject to a probe. It remained unclear if the Vezhen was responsible for the damage. On 26 December Finland detained a suspected Russian “shadow fleet” vessel over the severing of an energy link to Estonia, following several incidents of damage to gas and telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea in October 2023 and November 2024. Further such incidents are likely amid intensifying Russian sabotage attacks across Europe.
Click here to access Sweden’s and here to access Latvia’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Two killed in drone strike in West Bank amid ongoing IDF operation
Sectors: All
Key risks: violent clashes; regional escalation
In the occupied West Bank, on 24 January at least two Palestinians were killed in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) drone strike on a vehicle in Qabatiya. An IDF spokesperson stated that it had targeted a “terrorist cell”, but failed to provide any additional details. The strike came amid an ongoing IDF operation in nearby Jenin, which Tel Aviv claimed was intended to neutralise armed groups embedded in the city. Iran, losing ground against Israel, has increasingly shifted its focus towards arming militants in the occupied territory following the truce reached between Hamas and Israel to cease fighting in the Gaza Strip on 19 January. Local medics reported that since the start of the operation on 21 January, at least 12 Palestinians have been killed and 50 others have been injured. Further strikes are expected.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: DRC breaks ties with Rwanda as Kigali-backed M23 captures Goma
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional tensions; external conflict
In the DRC, on 27 January Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels reportedly captured Goma, North Kivu province, after clashes with the military, UN peacekeepers and Southern Africa Development Committee (SADC) soldiers. 13 UN and SADC soldiers and North Kivu military governor General Peter Cirimwami were killed as clashes erupted on the outskirts of Goma on 25 January. M23 had made rapid gains along the Masisi, Lubero and Nyiragongo axes between 1 and 22 January, with government counter offensives failing to hold recaptured territory. Following unconfirmed reports of Rwandan soldiers entering North Kivu, Kinshasa broke off ties with Kigali and refused mediation efforts by Angola, Turkey or the East African Community. Clashes along the outskirts of the city will continue in the coming days as the government looks to recapture the city. The complete breakdown in relations with Rwanda will raise external conflict risks in the near future.
Click here to access the DRC’s and here to access Rwanda’s Global Intake profiles.
