Americas: Ecuador gears up for high-stakes presidential and legislative elections on 9 February
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political violence
In Ecuador, on 9 February voters will head to the polls for legislative and presidential elections. While voters will have a choice of 16 presidential hopefuls, the voter intention polls suggest the presidential election will be between centre-right President Daniel Noboa and centre-left Luisa Gonzalez. As Noboa leads with 36-40 per cent support over Gonzalez’s 32-26 per cent, the elections will likely head into the second round on 13 April – marking the second run-off election in which Noboa and Gonzalez face off. Noboa took office on 15 October to serve out former president Guillermo Lasso’s term after he triggered snap elections, which were marred by political violence linked to organised criminal groups amid an unprecedented security crisis, which has persisted. The risk of such violence will be heightened in the days preceding the elections.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Bangladesh’s Awami League party calls for mass strikes throughout February
Sectors: all
Key Risks: disruptive unrest; violent clashes; industrial action; business risks
In Bangladesh, on 28 January the country’s Awami League (AL) political party called for nationwide protests and strikes on official social media channels. The AL called for pamphlets to be distributed beginning 1 February, with mass closures of businesses – known as hartals – to be held on 6, 10, 16 and 18 February. The party’s declaration came amid accusations of “oppression and misrule” by the interim government. Its supporters further claimed that it had “usurped democracy” after it took office following the 5 August ousting of the AL led by Sheikh Hasina, who has since fled to India. Although many members of the AL’s leadership are in prison, exile or hiding, the party still enjoys some support throughout the country, indicating that the risks of mass protests with high potential for violence will remain heightened throughout February.
Click here to access Bangladesh’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine’s anti-graft agency probes Defence Minister Umerov as procurement infighting escalates
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political infighting; corruption
In Ukraine, on 29 January the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) opened a probe into potential abuse of authority by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov at a corruption watchdog’s request. This came after on 28 January Umerov dismissed a deputy defence minister in charge of weapons purchases as infighting over procurement escalated. Infighting erupted after on 24 January Umerov dismissed Maryna Bezrukova, head of the independent Defence Procurement Agency. Umerov blamed the agency – established in 2023 at NATO’s advice to reduce corruption – for failing to arm troops and making purchases too publicly visible by turning procurement into an “Amazon” of transparent purchases. Bezrukova defied her firing, stating it exceeded Umerov’s authority after the independent agency’s supervisory board voted to extend her contract by a year. Kyiv’s Western allies warned the infighting could weaken Western support and disrupt procurement.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Kosovo to hold parliamentary election on 9 February
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
In Kosovo, on 9 February citizens will head to polls to elect the next parliament. The ruling Vetevendosje party of Prime Minister Albin Kurti is projected to win. The election will take place amid heightened tensions between Pristina and the Serbian minority in the north, with a hard stance on Serbs being one of the focal points of Kurti’s campaign. On 23 December 2024 the Central Election Commission barred the largest Serbian party – the Serbian list – from running in the vote over its nationalism and close ties to Belgrade. The decision was later overturned by Kosovo’s Electoral Panel but have further aggravated the antagonism between the two groups. To mitigate the risk of tensions spilling into violence, NATO’s peacekeeping mission to the country (KFOR) boosted its presence by 200 troops over the election period. Tensions will remain high in the coming week.
Click here to access Kosovo’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: 10 killed in IDF airstrike as counterterrorism operation continues in occupied West Bank
Sectors: All
Key risks: regional conflict ; violent clashes
In Gaza and the West Bank, on 29 January at least 10 Palestinians were killed in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes in Tubas, in the north of the occupied West Bank. Since 21 January – two days after a ceasefire took effect in Gaza – an IDF “counterterrorism” operation has been ongoing against Palestinian militant groups across the West Bank, focusing on the city of Jenin. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that IDF troops would stay in the Jenin refugee camp to prevent the return of “terrorism”. The camp – a hotbed for Palestinian militant groups – has been the target of previous security operations by both the IDF and Palestinian Authority (PA). Local medics reported that since 21 January, at least 25 Palestinians have been killed and 50 others have been injured. IDF airstrikes and violent clashes with Palestinian militants are likely in the short term.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 56 killed in market shelling as RSF and SAF contest Sudan’s capital
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; governability; war-on-land
In Sudan, on 1 February at least 56 civilians were killed and 156 others were injured in a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) artillery and drone strike on a market in Omdurman, Khartoum state. The RSF has intensified artillery and drone use in the state as the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) continue to progress in recapturing the triple cities of Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman. Since 24 January the SAF has alleviated the sieges on the General Command headquarters, Jalili refinery and the Signal Corps headquarters in the state. SAF’s advances have pushed the RSF to the outskirts of the cities, leaving isolated pockets of resistance. RSF commander General Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo pledged on 31 January to recapture the capital, although the operational initiative remains with the SAF. Further clashes between the RSF and the SAF in Khartoum state are likely in the coming days.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake profile.
