Date first published: 20/02/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: arbitrary arrests; partisan attacks; political polarisation
Risk development
As of 20 February, an estimated 5,500 people have been arrested as part of the government’s Operation Devil Hunt, with over 500 taking place within the past 24 hours. The operation, launched to re-establish order as civil unrest escalates nationwide, followed a 7 February attack on a student group in Gazipur, Dhaka. The action was harshly condemned by the interim government, which subsequently authorised the launch of the operation on 9 February. The operation has taken place nationwide, with arrests recorded in Gazipur, Dhaka, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Cumilla and Khagrachhari as Dhaka seeks to pre-emptively suppress violent action carried out by the Awami League (AL)’s supporters.
Why it matters
Operation Devil Hunt poses the severe risks of unrest, political polarisation and arbitrary arrests, as it seeks to crack down on all individuals linked to the ousted AL political party. As polarisation and civil unrest have led to both inter- and intra-party clashes, those linked to the AL may view the arrests made amid Operation Devil Hunt as a form of political persecution, greatly inflaming already-existing nationwide tensions. The operation will also place increased pressure on an already extremely backlogged judicial system, which reports indicate has over 4.2 million pending cases due to bureaucratic inefficiencies and a systemic lack of qualified judges. It further raises the risk of crime nationwide, as police, military and counter-terror groups divert resources towards mass arrests, limiting their ability to address smaller crimes.
Background
On 29 January former prime minister Sheikh Hasina called for nationwide strikes and business closures – known as hartals – in support of the AL political party that was ousted on 5 August 2024. The rallying of AL supporters accused the interim government of “usurping democracy” and advocated for political activity to be held on 1, 6, 10, 16 and 18 February. On 7 February, a group of students in Gazipur, Dhaka, came under attack while protesting at the home of the country’s former Liberation War affairs minister by a group linked to the AL that emerged from a nearby mosque. The attack spurred action from the interim government, which sought to crack down on increased unrest nationwide in the wake of Hasina’s call to action. On 9 February, Dhaka launched Operation Devil Hunt, which seeks to arrest all individuals linked to the AL, with officials calling for the country to be “cleansed of Awami fascism” and stating that they “would not stop until all devils were arrested”.
Risk outlook
The risks of political instability and polarisation will remain heightened in the short and medium term. Although the government plans to hold elections no later than “early 2026”, the arrest of AL officials, Hasina’s claims of the interim government “usurping democracy” and the possible ban of the AL altogether are likely to lead to mass perceptions of illegitimate government, especially among the AL’s supporters. Public perceptions of the interim government’s actions amid Operation Devil Hunt, as well as the likely outcome of the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party winning the next election, may prolong ongoing issues surrounding civil unrest and widespread political violence in the country.