Date first published: 08/05/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; communal violence; banditry
Risk development
Between 4 and 20 April multiple-casualty attacks occurred in the country’s North-East, North-West and North-Central geopolitical zones. Over 110 people were killed in two attacks by Fulani militias in Plateau state on 4 and 14 April. On 19 April more than 56 people were killed in herdsmen and bandit attacks in Bokkos Local Government Area (LGA), Benue state. Meanwhile, the Mahmadu faction – a known Boko Haram faction – was reported to be operating alongside local bandits in Kwara state on 20 April.
Why it matters
The country is experiencing a widening spread of insecurity and violence beyond the traditional insurgent heartlands of the North-East, particularly in Borno state. Islamic State-West Africa Province (IS-WAP) and Boko Haram have both intensified their insurgencies since February, attacking military installations and local security initiatives under the ‘Burn the Camps’ campaign, which aims to target and destroy military camps in Borno state. . State security forces have intensified military operations in Borno state in April but have so far failed to curb IS-WAP and/or Boko Haram activity.
The Mahmadu faction’s emergence in Kwara state on 20 April threatens to further destabilise the west of the country, with the group being the second rising Islamist militant group. Led by a senior Boko Haram commander, the group was originally based in Niger state before moving west. It has made connections with and operates alongside local bandits in Kwara state and the wider North-West zone of the country. Utilising connections with Boko Haram, bandit groups and other organised criminal elements, Mahmadu will look to entrench their position in Kwara state, consolidating Boko Haram’s position in the west.
Elsewhere, Benue state has seen more than 600 people killed since December 2024, with the April attacks in Plateau state being the deadliest wave of violence since December 2023. Worsening economic conditions and growing competition for land and resources between Fulani herdsmen and farmers have drastically increased tensions between the two communities. The interconnections between local security initiatives and state security forces have indirectly deepened ties between Fulani militias and armed bandits. As these associations continue and tensions persist, periods of intercommunal violence are likely to be deadlier and more frequent
Background
The overlapping connections between armed bandits, herder militias and Islamist insurgent groups pose a more complex security threat that is increasingly encroaching southward and westward. Abuja has been unable to counter intensifying Islamist insurgency activity or the spread of bandit groups – known as state militias – into the centre of the country, despite multiple ongoing military operations in the northern states. Instability has impacted agriculture and mining, two vital sectors for the regional economies, creating a feedback loop where worsening economic conditions drive the recruitment of farmers, herders and unemployed young people into bandit, insurgent or local self-defence groups. The increasingly complex security landscape has made police and military action difficult, prompting multiple states to call for the decentralised security forces to improve response times.
Risk outlook
Insecurity is likely to worsen in the North-Central zone as the government remains unable to address the social and economic conditions that exacerbate key security issues in the region. Additionally, the lack of communal mediation will fuel ongoing tensions, leading to further episodes of violence in Benue and Plateau states. It will also leave communities in Kwara state increasingly vulnerable to radicalisation as well as looting and extortion by Mahmadu faction in the coming months.
The resurgence of IS-WAP and Boko Haram activity is expected to persist as the groups maintain operational momentum against security forces in the North-East of the country. Attacks on military installations and vigilante groups will further isolate communities in Borno state, allowing for IS-WAP to expand its influence in the coming weeks.