What WE OFFER
Geopolitical Risk Analysis
In an increasingly complex and volatile world, AKE provides expert assessments of geopolitical risks and their potential impact on client operations.
Our services range from scenario modelling and conflict monitoring to tailored briefings and strategic forecasting – ensuring clients are equipped to make informed, forward-looking decisions in dynamic environments.
Probable loss
modelling
Quantify the financial impact of political and economic shocks with a bespoke model built to stress-test portfolios and reveal hidden vulnerabilities.
Conflict monitoring + analysis
Stay ahead of unfolding crises with real-time conflict tracking and expert analysis that informs operational and strategic decision-making.
Sector-specific geopolitical risk assessments
Understand how global events shape your industry with tailored insights – starting with our flagship Energy Report and expanding to your sector.
AKE equips decision makers with the intelligence to see beyond the headlines and act with clarity amid uncertainty.
Probable Loss Modelling
AKE’s Probable Maximum Loss Model is a bespoke model created for companies to assess the dollar impact of political and economic shocks on the risk of corporate defaults – and, by extension, the effect on an insurance or investment company’s assets. AKE’s model looks at shocks’ effects on sectors, economies and firms. For instance, a shock to China’s economy may spur a commodity price fall, economic crises in other countries and political instability.
Integrates high quality economic and political analysis.
Uses validated qualitative and quantitative metrics.
Assesses the probability of shocks.
Focuses on the interaction between shocks in order to capture the effects of contagion.
Provides a vulnerability assessment for companies.
Conflict Monitoring & Analysis
AKE provides timely, in-depth analysis of active and emerging conflicts, helping clients understand the implications for operations, supply chains, and strategic planning. Our monitoring captures developments in real time, assesses escalation risks, and evaluates potential regional and global impacts.
We also track the effects of conflict on regional escalation dynamics, ensuring organisations have the intelligence needed to make informed, proactive decisions in complex security environments.
Standard reports include:
Summary of Key Developments
Concise updates on the most significant recent events.
Analysis of Regional Escalation Dynamics
Expert insight into how conflict developments may influence broader regional stability.
Assessment of Operational Impact
Analysis of how ongoing conflict may affect clients’ operations, assets, and personnel.
Projection of Future Developments
Forward-looking scenarios to support planning and risk mitigation.
Background Information
Contextual overview to better understand the root causes and actors involved in the conflict.
Sector-Specific Geopolitical Risk Assessments
AKE’s sector-specific geopolitical risk assessments analyse how geopolitical developments impact particular industries. Our flagship Energy report, for example, examines the effects of geopolitical events on energy prices across both renewable energy and fossil fuels. This flexible framework can be adapted to assess geopolitical risks in other sectors according to client needs and interests.
OUR PROCESS
A Global Team of Regional Experts
AKE’s analysis team brings together regional, linguistic, and subject-matter specialists.
Drawing on deep local knowledge, our analysts monitor and assess a wide range of open sources to provide timely insights into emerging threats and trends.
Global Coverage, Local Insight
With team members based around the world and extensive on-the-ground networks, we access critical information directly from the source.
This local perspective enhances the accuracy and relevance of our reporting.
Powered by Data
Our analysis is supported by Global Intake, AKE’s proprietary risk platform, which integrates our own research with incident data from ACLED.
With over 40,000 incidents recorded weekly, we’re able to track trends at a highly granular level to support evidence-based decision-making.
Intelligence Meets Operations
For security-focused reports, our analysts work closely with AKE’s operations specialists – experts with hands-on experience in challenging environments.
This collaboration ensures that our pre-deployment reports are not only analytically sound, but also include practical mitigation advice that covers all aspects of security and safety.
HOW WE HAVE HELPED
Insurance
A major insurance company turned to AKE to help develop a model to assess the risks to their portfolio of over 4,000 companies.
We put together a comprehensive data-driven model to assess the risk to each of the companies, and stress tested the portfolio based on over 20 plausible scenarios.
Drawing on in-country networks and deep contextual knowledge, our analysts identified and assessed the contagion of a crisis in one country – for instance a war between Russia and Ukraine – could have for the entire geographically diversified portfolio.
Our analysis showed our client the vulnerabilities in their portfolio and helped them construct mitigation strategies for all but the most extreme scenarios.