Americas: Brazil’s general elections likely to result in Bolsonaro-Lula face-off on 30 October
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty and continuity; political violence and instability; business risks
In Brazil, general elections scheduled for 2 October are expected to lead to a face-off between former leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right President Jair Bolsonaro seeking re-election. Recent polls suggest that Lula maintains a strong lead, but no candidate is expected to reach the 50 per cent threshold to win outright. Although Bolsonaro has managed to slightly improve his popularity amid the implementation of welfare programmes and pressure to tackle rising fuel prices, Lula appears to be on track to also win a likely second round on 30 October. Voters will also elect 27 out of 81 senators and all 513 members of the lower house of Congress. Uncertainty and heightened political violence risks will mark the days ahead of the vote, set to be one of the most polarised in the country’s history.
Asia Pacific: Japan on high alert ahead of controversial state funeral for Shinzo Abe
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; political violence
In Japan, public furore over the planned state funeral for former prime minister Shinzo Abe is set to continue to grow, with thousands demonstrating nationwide to demand its cancellation. Despite being the country’s longest serving prime minister, Abe remains a divisive figure for what many deem militarist and revisionist views. The funeral, scheduled for 27 September, has become an increasingly acrimonious issue as more details of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s apparent links to the controversial Unification Church surfaced. In a recent Mainichi newspaper poll, 62 per cent of respondents opposed the state funeral, estimated to cost north of JPY1.7bln (US$12m). Protesters have decried the expense amid soaring costs of living, further galvanising public opposition to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Heightened security measures are expected across Tokyo as foreign dignitaries gather in the city to attend the controversial funeral.
Eurasia: Russia reportedly plans to close borders to mobilisation-eligible men on 28 September
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; political instability
In Russia, on 25 September local media reported, quoting anonymous sources close to the Kremlin, that Russia plans to close its borders on 28 September to men who are eligible for the partial mobilisation announced on 21 September. Local media also reported that border guards had already started banning men from leaving the country based on the decisions of military draft commissions. On 26 September Senator Sergei Tsekov publicly called for the exit ban. According to some reports, almost 300,000 men have already left the country and Russia’s neighbours, including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia, report long queues at the borders. Reports also emerged indicating that some Russian men received a draft notice at the border, although these could not be confirmed. More people are expected to attempt to leave the country ahead of 28 September.
Europe: Political impasse likely to follow snap elections in Bulgaria
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability
In Bulgaria, the fourth parliamentary election in less than two years is unlikely to deliver a stable coalition on 2 October. The snap election was called after no party was able to form a government following the collapse of former prime minister Kiril Petkov’s anti-graft government on 22 June. Polls indicate that the centre-right GERB party of former prime minister Boyko Borissov is leading the race with over 25 per cent of the vote, but rival parties continue to refuse to cooperate with Borissov due to corruption allegations. If no new government is formed, the country will continue to be governed by interim Galab Donev’s cabinet appointed by President Rumen Radev. Such an outcome would likely result in further delays to reforms. There is a heightened risk of civil unrest ahead of the vote.
MENA: Growing protests becoming a serious challenge facing Iran’s government
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; political violence
In Iran, nationwide demonstrations continue to escalate following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by morality police for failing to comply with the strict hijab rules. Despite a violent security force crackdown, protests are being held daily with no signs of abating. The Iranian authorities’ response has sparked international condemnation from governments and human rights groups, with demonstrations being held in front of Iranian embassies in Europe. Seizing on the opportunity to apply pressure on the Iranian government, the US is seeking to ensure internet service in the country to counter government censorship. Iran accused the US of using the protests to try to destabilise the country and warned that the move would not go unanswered, without giving further details. The government will attempt to contain the protest movement while contending with mounting international pressure to comply with human rights standards.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Ghana and the IMF to discuss policies, reforms ahead of financing agreement
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic; frustration of process
In Ghana, the government is scheduled to meet with IMF staff between 26 September and 7 October to discuss policies and reforms that could be supported by a lending agreement. Accra and the IMF are expected to agree to a US$3bln three-year deal which would contain elements of both extended credit facility and extended fund facility programmes. The funding programme will allow the government to meet its debt obligations and restore access to external financing. Accra will likely be required to restructure its local currency debt with bondholders as part of pre-conditions to receive the loan. On 23 September Fitch Ratings lowered Accra’s long-term issuer default rating to CC, four notches below investment grade. The rating reflects a very high level of credit risk. The deal is expected to be finalised before end-2022.
