Americas: Agricultural workers’ union calls for nationwide demonstrations in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruption; business disruption
In Bolivia, on 12 September, the Tupac Katari Federation of Agricultural Workers called for nationwide indefinite demonstrations and road blockades to commence on 16 September, demanding the resignation of President Luis Arce and Vice President David Choquehuanca for fomenting divisions within the social organisations of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party. This came amid a widening rift between former president Evo Morales – who announced his candidacy for 2025 presidential elections despite a ban – and Arce – Morales’s former economy minister turned rival – within the ruling MAS party. Both Arce and Morales are vying for the presidential nomination, increasing risks of a formal split in the MAS party. On 19 August Arce suspended the presidential primary elections scheduled for later this year, which Morales was planning to use to challenge Arce’s re-election bid. Prolonged demonstrations will risk significant trade and traffic disruptions.
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Asia Pacific: Sri Lanka to hold high-stakes presidential election on 21 September
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks; policy uncertainty; governance
In Sri Lanka, on 21 September elections will be held for the first time since its economy collapsed in 2022, causing nationwide unrest that forced then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign. Those running for office include current president Ranil Wickremesinghe, who remains unpopular due to the implementation of austerity measures in exchange for financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who has emerged as the primary opposition candidate, leading the leftist National Peoples’ Power (JJB) party. Risks associated with the vote have already been reflected in foreign investment outlooks, as a selloff in dollar bonds reduced the country’s financial exposure and indicated foreign concerns over the election’s political outcomes. While anger over the 2022 crisis persists, it will likely manifest in the form of protest votes and financial uncertainty, rather than civil unrest.
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Eurasia: Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks likely to protract despite Kazakhstan’s mediation offer
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land
In Kazakhstan, on 9 September President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev offered to hold peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan during a conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev. Aliyev called the proposal “acceptable”, although the parameters of the potential talks were not detailed. Astana has positioned itself as a conflict mediator, hosting a meeting between the two sides on 12 May. The offer followed Aliyev’s 6 September announcement that the two parties agreed on 80 per cent of a draft agreement. However, on 11 September Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Aykhan Hajiade stated that Baku would not sign a peace agreement which would not address all issues. It was previously discussed that the two parties would sign a framework peace agreement that would include provisions already agreed on and create a mechanism to continue discussing outstanding issues. Despite Kazakhstan’s offer, peace talks are likely to protract.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Far-right AfD leads polls ahead of Germany’s Brandenburg state election
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; policy gridlock; xenophobia
In Germany, on 22 September residents will vote in the Brandenburg state election. Polls indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is leading the race at around 29 per cent of support amid rising public concerns over migration and dissatisfaction with the government. The ruling coalition’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is polling at 26 per cent, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Greens are projected to reach 15 and 5 per cent of support. The vote will come after on 1 September AfD won the state elections in Thuringia with 32.8 per cent of support and came in second in Saxony with 30.6 per cent. Despite the party’s successes, it is unlikely to be able to govern as most parties refuse to cooperate with AfD. An AfD victory would likely complicate the government formation process.
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MENA: Retaliatory strikes in Yemen likely after Huthi hypersonic missile targets central Israel
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation
In Israel, on 16 September Huthi militants launched a hypersonic missile that reached the Central district for the first time. The missile targeted a military site near Jaffa but was intercepted by Israel’s Arrow and Iron Dome defence systems. Despite this, missile fragments landed near Modin and close to the Ben Gurion International Airport, causing damage but no injuries. The Huthis claimed that the attack was conducted in solidarity with Palestinians ahead of the 7 October anniversary. On 21 July an intercepted Huthi drone strike on Tel Aviv prompted Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on Yemen’s al-Hudaida, igniting a major fire at a key oil storage facility. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a “heavy price” would be imposed on the Huthis, framing it as part of a broader battle against Iran-backed groups. IDF retaliatory airstrikes on Huthi-held areas in Yemen are expected.
Click here to access Israel’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Civil unrest risks heightened in Burkina Faso amid rising insecurity
Sectors: all
Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; terrorism
In Burkina Faso, on 13 September three people were killed in an attack by likely members of Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) in Djibo town, Sahel region. JNIM has increasingly intensified attacks as it looks to capture Djibo after nearly two years of besieging it. The attack sparked protests in the city, with residents demanding stronger government action to improve security in the area. Djibo and the entire Sahel region have experienced persistent insecurity, with JNIM controlling vast parts of the region. Ouagadougou has struggled to tackle growing insecurity, with the military and auxiliary forces (VDP) consistently reporting logistics and supply issues. Major attacks by JNIM on 11 June, 12 August and 24 August have intensified unrest within the military and the VDP. Unrest among civilians and the military will increase as JNIM attacks persist.
Click here to access Burkina Faso’s Global Intake country profile.
