Americas: Brazil’s Bolsonaro calls for 25 February demonstration amid coup plot accusations Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest In Brazil, on 25 February supporters of far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro are set to attend a “peaceful event” in Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo state. The demonstration was called for by Bolsonaro on 13 February to rally […]
Americas: Controversial referendum over Essequibo region set for 3 December in Venezuela Sectors: all; oil and gas Key Risks: external conflict; civil unrest; border tension In Venezuela, on 3 December President Nicolas Maduro’s government will hold a public referendum over the disputed oil-rich Essequibo region amid recent escalations in a long-standing territorial dispute with neighbouring […]
Americas: President-elect Noboa expected to be sworn in on 23 November in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: political uncertainty; political instability; policy continuity; governability risks In Ecuador, on 23 November President-elect Daniel Noboa is expected to be sworn in to begin his truncated 18-month term. On 11 November legislator-elect Pierina Correa stated that the tentative […]
Americas: Heightened risk of violent clashes and protests in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; political violence; violent clashes In Honduras, on 1 November ruling Libre party lawmakers elected Johel Zelaya as interim Attorney General, with a committee vote where their members make up a majority – even though they represent a […]
Americas: Renewed protests likely as MS party’s legal immunity set to expire in Guatemala Sectors: all; cargo transport Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; political violence; violent clashes In Guatemala, on 31 October the immunity from legal cases granted to President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s Seed Movement (MS) party will expire. Any lawsuits filed against MS after […]
Americas: Over 40 organisations set to protest across Costa Rica on 25 October Sectors: all; transport Key Risks: civil unrest In Costa Rica, on 25 October anti-government demonstrators – including members of the National Council of Rectors (CONARE) union and 40 other student- and teacher-led social organisations – are set to protest nationwide. The protests […]
Date first published: 17/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won the 15 October general election, securing 35.4 per cent of the votes, celebrations were rather modest. Opposition coalitions – including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New […]
Americas: Libertarian Milei leads polls ahead of Argentina’s 22 October presidential vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy and regulatory uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; economic In Argentina, voters will head to the polls on 22 October in the most uncertain presidential race in the country’s recent history. The last polls to be released ahead of […]
Date first published: 05/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism Risk development Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are […]
Americas: Noboa and Gonzalez to face off on 15 October in Ecuador’s presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political violence; political stability In Ecuador, on 15 October voters will head to the polls to choose between Luisa Gonzalez – an ally of leftist former president Rafael Correa – and businessman Daniel Noboa in […]
Date first published: 28/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; trade disruptions Risk development On 18 September Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary claim of ‘credible allegations’ of Indian state involvement in the June killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. While Trudeau did not substantiate […]
Americas: Government, EMC 10-month bilateral ceasefire to take effect in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 8 October President Gustavo Petro’s government and the EMC – the country’s largest dissident former FARC rebel group – will launch peace talks in Tibu, Norte de Santander department, and […]
