Date first published: 05/10/2023

Key sectors: all

Key risks: war on land; terrorism

Risk development

Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are being vacated by the departing UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) forces. Since clashes erupted, the CMA has managed to capture at least five military bases, including the Bamba, Lere, Dioura and Bourem bases in the northern Gao region. However, on 2 October national security chiefs redeployed a large contingent of FAMa forces – consisting of about 119 vehicles – from Gao region to Kidal region. The move threatens to escalate the conflict and sets the scene for a war between the CMA and FAMa.

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