Hong Kong: The siege of PolyU

Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; internal conflict On 26 November a 50-strong group made up of security guards, councillors, Red Cross doctors and university management entered the Polytechnic University (PolyU) campus in Hung Hom to look for the handful of students believed to still be inside, while riot police remained stationed outside....

Ones to Watch, 25 November 2019

Americas: Uruguay’s centre-right Lacalle Pou likely winner of presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; governability In Uruguay, preliminary results of the 24 November presidential runoff vote showed conservative lawyer Luis Lacalle Pou of the centre-right National Party ahead of Daniel Martinez of the ruling Broad Front coalition. With 99.41 per cent of the ballots counted, Lacalle Pou...

Bolivia: Legitimacy crisis

Key sectors: all Key risks: policy continuity; political stability; governability; civil unrest Bolivia’s government is facing an unprecedented legitimacy crisis. The fact that Bolivians are increasingly divided as to who has the constitutional right to head the country is testament to the severity of the instability risks to which the country has been exposed...

Ones to Watch, 18 November 2019

Americas: Protest-related disruption expected ahead of Colombia’s 21 November national strike Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption; political violence In Colombia, a national general strike scheduled for 21 November is expected to cause travel disruption and could lead to potentially violent unrest amid heightened security force presence. The strike was initially organised...

Saudi Arabia: Will the behemoth Aramco float or flounder?

Key sectors: oil & gas Key risks: business disruption; contract frustration; policy uncertainty On 1 May 2015 Saudi’s oil behemoth and state cornerstone Aramco was placed under the direction of then-deputy crown prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS). The establishment of ‘Supreme Council of the Saudi Arabian Oil Company’ consolidated Saudi’s economic engine under the...