Peru: Political violence and operational disruption

Date first published: 14/3/2019 Key sectors: mining; hydrocarbon; commercial; cargo transport Key risks: disruptive strikes; business interruption; civil unrest Peru is a consolidated example of the pervasive effects brought about by the links between political violence and operational disruption. The mining and hydrocarbon sectors continue to demonstrate that one can cause the other, and vice...

Ones to Watch, 18 March 2019

Americas: Guyana to miss snap election deadline, constitutional crisis looms Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; governability In Guyana, the 21 March deadline to hold snap elections is fast approaching. The vote will not take place, heightening the risk of a constitutional crisis. On 21 December 2018 opposition leader Bharrat Jagdeo and his People’s...

Nigeria: Buhari victory means more of the same

Date first published: 12/3/2019 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; internal conflict; civil unrest Far from a promised thriller, Nigeria’s 23 February general elections had few suspense-building qualities. Perhaps the biggest surprise was how little the electoral map differed from the 2015 elections, apart from a few swing states changing camp. President Muhammadu Buhari,...

Ones to Watch, 11 March 2019

Americas: Nicaraguan opposition threatens to end dialogue absent government concessions Sectors: all Key Risks: business disruption; political instability; civil unrest; security force crackdown In Nicaragua, progress in the recently resumed negotiations between the government and the opposition will remain elusive unless President Daniel Ortega shows signs of commitment to the opposition’s demands. On 10...

India-Pakistan: Lessons from the week of war

Date first published: 5/3/2019 Key sectors: all Key risks: external conflict On 14 February Pakistani-based Islamist group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) rammed a car filled with explosives into a military vehicle in Pulwama, Indian-administered Kashmir. The subsequent explosion killed at least 40 members of the Indian security forces in the single deadliest terrorist attack in Kashmir since...