Venezuela: Maduro vs. Guaido

Date first published: 7/2/2018 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; arbitrary arrests; civil unrest; military intervention; sanctions The world has decided to get involved in Venezuela’s long-standing crisis. Developments over the past month have forced a considerable number of countries to declare themselves for or against a transition of power to put an end...

Russia-NATO: The thawing of the Cold War Détente

Date first published: 5/2/2018 Key sectors: security Key risks: arms race; geopolitical instability In October 2018, US President Donald Trump announced his decision to withdraw from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Four months later in February 2019, the Trump administration officially suspended observance of the treaty, triggering the required six-months- withdrawal notice. Moscow, a...

China – United States: Waaah – wei!

Date first published: 30/1/2018 Key sectors: technology; various Key risks: great-power rivalry; trade war; sanctions On 28 January the US Department of Justice (DoJ) announced criminal charges against Huawei and its CFO Sabrina Meng Wanzhou for conspiring to violate sanctions on Iran. The DoJ views Meng’s case as separate from the trade spat. For the...

Colombia: The end of ELN peace talks – for now

Date first published: 22/1/2018 Key sectors: oil and gas; electricity; security force/government personnel and assets Key risks: insurgency; terrorism; targeted attacks; kidnapping The latest National Liberation Army (ELN) attack in Colombia’s capital Bogota effectively put an end to already stalled formal peace talks. On 21 January the leftist guerrilla claimed responsibility for the 17 January...

Gabon: A botched coup

Date first published: 16/1/2018 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; political violence; civil unrest In the early morning of 7 January, a group of soldiers calling themselves the Patriotic Youth Movement of the Gabonese Defence and Security Forces, led by a Lieutenant Kelly Obiang Ondo, seized control of public broadcaster RTG’s headquarters in Libreville....