Risk Insights

  • Suriname: Desi desists?
    Date first published: 30/06/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; policy continuity; sovereign default President Desire Delano ‘Desi...
    01 July 2020
  • China – North Korea: Three nos: the mantra driving China’s North Korea Strategy
    Date first published: 23/06/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: external conflict; regional stability On 16 June, North Korea demolished the Inter-Korean...
    24 June 2020
  • DRC: Kamerhe corruption trial highlights President’s perennial power struggles
    Date first published: 16/06/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: frustration of process; corruption; political instability On 20 June, a Kinshasa tribunal...
    17 June 2020
  • European Union: A small step towards fiscal federalism
    Date first published: 09/06/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: sovereign debt; economic recovery; fiscal federalism In 1790, Alexander Hamilton, the fir...
    10 June 2020
  • Burundi: What next after 20 May general elections?
    Date first published: 2/06/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; external conflict; political violence; civil unrest; economic growth Bu...
    03 June 2020
  • China – US: Post-pandemic relations: more, not less, tension
    Date first published: 28/05/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; economic growth; investment; trade war The United States (US)-Chin...
    28 May 2020
  • Yemen: Southern separatists secede as COVID-19 catastrophe escalates
    Date first published: 19/05/2020 Key sectors: all; shipping; construction Key risks: political instability; war on land On 26 April Yemen’s separati...
    20 May 2020
  • Venezuela: Déjà-vu
    Date first published: 12/05/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; insurrection; governability; civil unrest Attempts to oust Nicolas...
    13 May 2020
  • Turkey: Another banking crisis
    Date first published: 06/05/2020 Key sectors: banks; state-backed projects; sovereign Key risks: banking crisis Perhaps surprisingly, the COVID-19 pan...
    07 May 2020
  • Latin America: Prison riots increase as COVID-19 spreads
    Date first published: 28/04/2020 Key sectors: public security; penitentiary systems Key risks: civil unrest; riots; violent clashes The COVID-19 pande...
    29 April 2020
  • Tunisia: Distressing Debt
    Date first published: 21/04/2020 Key sectors: all Key risks: default risks On 10 April the International Monetary Fund approved US$745m in emergency a...
    22 April 2020
  • United States: The geopolitics of Federal Reserve swap lines
    Date first published: 31/03/2020 The Federal Reserve prides itself on its political independence, a core tenet of how it should operate. It should mak...
    22 April 2020