Ones to Watch, 2 September 2019

Americas: Conflict dynamics to change as dissident former FARC leaders issue call to arms Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; guerrilla activity; clashes with security forces In Colombia, conflict dynamics are expected to change as dissident former FARC leaders called on their followers to take up arms. On 29 August dissident former FARC second-in...

Ones to Watch, 27 August 2019

Americas: Mexico expected to announce deal with gas pipeline companies to avoid arbitration Sectors: oil & gas Key Risks: business risks; frustration of process In Mexico, the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is expected to announce an agreement over the coming days to resolve a lengthy conflict with energy companies over...

Argentina: Primary concerns

Key sectors: all Key risks: policy continuity; political instability; currency volatility; non-payment The 11 August primary elections dramatically exacerbated Argentina’s economic and financial concerns. The defeat of centre-right President Mauricio Macri against leftist opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez, a veteran Peronist whose running mate is former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK), was somewhat expected. The stunning...

Ones to Watch, 19 August 2019

Americas: Argentina to face further financial turmoil as crisis intensifies Sectors: all Key Risks: economic risks; political instability; policy continuity In Argentina, further financial turmoil is expected in the lead up to and after the upcoming 27 October general elections in which President Mauricio Macri seems increasingly unlikely to be re-elected. On 17 August...

Kyrgyzstan: An elite fallout in Bishkek

Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political violence; political stability It took two dramatic raids in order to detain ex-president Almazbek Atambayev. Although his arrest on 8 August had been on the cards for the past year, Atambayev resisted fiercely, first seeking Russian President Vladimir Putin’s protection in Moscow, and then mounting an...