Date first published: 10/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regime change Risk development On 8 December opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared the end of President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule after entering Damascus. They imposed a citywide curfew from 16:00 to 5:00 local time while al-Assad left the country, being granted […]
Americas: Mexico’s unionised education workers set to march in Mexico City, strike nationwide Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest In Mexico, on 9 December the National Coordinating Committee of Education Workers (CNTE) is set to mobilise a mass march in the capital Mexico City and a nationwide strike at more than 5,300 public […]
Date first published: 03/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: ceasefire, regional war, geopolitical tensions Risk development On 26 November a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Tel Aviv was secured following negotiations led by the United States (US) and France. The agreement requires Hizbullah militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel Defense Forces […]
Americas: Ruling may further delay count of Puerto Rico’s 5 November election result Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability In Puerto Rico, on 27 November a judge issued a ruling in response to a lawsuit. It ordered the State Elections Commission (EC) to count early votes following ID verification – threatening to further delay the […]
Date first published: 26/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; governability risks Risk development On 8 November, at least 15 people were killed by Lakurawa militants in Mera village, Augie Local Government Area (LGA) in Kebbi state. A traditional leader noted that this was the first attack by the group in the area. […]
Americas: Thousands protest President Petro’s reforms in major cities across Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest In Colombia, on 23 November thousands demonstrated in Cali, Valle del Cauca province; Medellin, Antioquia province; and the capital Bogota to protest President Gustavo Petro’s policies – including pension, health and labour reforms – as well […]
Date first published: 19/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic stagnation; corruption Risk development Botswana went to the polls on 30 October in what was set up to be a run-of-the-mill election for the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which governed the country since independence in 1966. Instead, the BDP suffered a resounding […]
Americas: Uruguay gears up for run-off presidential election on 24 November Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; traffic disruption In Uruguay, on 24 November voters will head to the polls to elect President Luis Lacalle Pou’s successor in a run-off vote between Pou’s ruling centre-right coalition led by the Partido Nacional (PN) and the opposition […]
Date first published: 07/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political polarisation Risk development Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump regained the White House with a stunning victory in the 5 November presidential election. At the time of writing, Trump, who was president from early 2017 to early 2021, looks set to win […]
Americas: Haiti’s transitional presidential council to replace PM Conille amid security crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; governability In Haiti, on 10 November the transitional presidential council drafted a resolution – to be released in the official gazette on 11 November – to replace Prime Minister Garry Conille with former senate candidate Alix Didier […]
Date first published: 31/10/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; geopolitical tensions; corruption Risk development On 27 October the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party won the 26 October general elections with 54 per cent of support. Election observers reported widespread irregularities, including vote buying, ballot stuffing and intimidation. Four opposition parties passed […]
Americas: US presidential election too close to call Sectors: all Key Risks: protests, civil unrest In the United States (US), on 5 November voters will elect the next president. Polls suggest that the race between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump is too close to call. Harris appears to have […]
