Ones to Watch, 27 August 2024
Americas: Widespread protests against constitutional reforms erupt across Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption In Mexico, on 25 August nationwide protests erupted against incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s proposed constitutional reforms – including subjecting 7,000 judgeships to election and removing seven autonomous bodies. Demonstrators denounced the reforms which precipitated a nationwide […]
Bangladesh: On the edge of a precipice

Date first published: 15/08/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; political violence; communal violence Risk development On 8 August Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Grameen Bank founder Muhammad Yunus was sworn in to lead an interim government as chief adviser following the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in a violent […]
Ones to Watch, 19 August 2024

Americas: Government declares state of emergency amid escalating violence in southern Jamaica Sectors: all Key Risks: violent crime; organised crime In Jamaica, on 14 August Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared a state of emergency (SoE) – typically including curfews, longer detention periods without charges and warrantless property searches – in the southern Clarendon parish after […]
Nigeria: Government calls for dialogue left on voicemail

Date first published: 13/08/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; economic risks Risk development On 1 August protests under the moniker #EndBadGovernment erupted in Abuja, Lagos and other major urban centres throughout the country. Protests were initially scheduled to last from 1 August to 15 August but organisers shifted the end date […]
Ones to Watch, 12 August 2024

Americas: President Arce announces referenda to address Bolivia’s economic and political crises Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; economic risks In Bolivia, on 6 August leftist President Luis Arce announced national referenda on removing fuel subsidies and on the constitutionality of presidential re-elections, in a move to address the country’s ongoing economic and […]
Serbia: Return of the Jadar project

Date first published: 06/08/2024 Key sectors: all; mining; automobile industry Key risks: civil unrest; frustration of process; business risks; supply chain disruption Risk development On 29 July thousands of people protested against Anglo-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto’s planned lithium mine in Jadar Valley in the towns of Sabac, Kraljevo, Arandjelovac and Ljig. This came after […]
Ones to Watch, 5 August 2024

Americas: Social organisations urge extension of expired government, ELN ceasefire in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 4 August over 700 social organisations in the Humanitarian Coordinator association urged President Gustavo Petro’s government and the ELN guerrilla group to extend the bilateral ceasefire that expired on […]
Ones to Watch, 29 July 2024

Americas: Arrest of Sinaloa cartel leaders set to escalate violence in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: gang violence; organised crime violence In Mexico, on 28 July the US ambassador to the country stated that the 25 July arrest of Sinaloa cartel – one of the world’s most powerful narco trafficking organisations – leaders Ismael ‘El […]
Ones to Watch, 22 July 2024

Americas: Controversy and unrest likely ahead of 28 July presidential elections in Venezuela Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; civil unrest; corruption; sanctions In Venezuela, on 28 July voters will head to the polls to choose between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition coalition Unitary Platform (UP)’s presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. Maduro […]
Ones to Watch, 15 July 2024

Americas: Trump assassination attempt raises fears of increasing political violence in the US Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; electoral violence; political stability In the US, former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump was shot in the ear in an assassination attempt and one spectator was killed during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assailant, […]
Ones to Watch, 8 July 2024

Americas: Heightened civil unrest risks amid planned fuel price hikes in Ecuador Sectors: all; transport Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest; economic In Ecuador, on 4 July hundreds of workers, teachers and students protested in the capital Quito after the National Union of Educators, Unitary Workers Front and Federation of University Students of Ecuador called […]
Ones to Watch, 1 July 2024

Americas: Increased police presence following coup attempt in Bolivia Sectors: transport; all Key Risks: political stability; traffic disruption; civil unrest In Bolivia, on 26 June the army took control over Plaza Murillo square in the capital La Paz and forced entry into the presidential palace in an apparent coup attempt, led by General Juan Jose […]