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Sweden-Turkey: Sweden’s burning path to NATO

Date first published: 02/02/2023 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: civil unrest; war on land   Risk development On 16 May 2022 the previous Swedish government, led by the centre-left Magdalena Andersson, decided to apply for NATO membership. The decision was taken after the Foreign Ministry drafted a report on the consequences of Russia’s war […]

Uzbekistan: The coldest winter in 50 years

Date first published: 26/01/2023 Key sectors: energy; oil and gas Key risks: civil unrest; economic; business   Risk outlook On 18 January dozens of residents stormed local energy facilities in the capital Tashkent and other towns in the Tashkent region due to electricity shortages. On 16 January a video emerged on social media of a […]

Peru: Unrest impacts the mining sector  

Date first published: 24/01/2023 Key sectors: mining Key risks: business risk; economic risk; business interruption; political violence   Risk development An ongoing wave of higly disruptive and violent unrest is significantly affecting Peru’s mining sector. The protests – sparked by the ouster and arrest of former leftist president Pedro Castillo on 7 December 2022 – […]

Iran: No end in sight

Date first published: 17/01/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; civil unrest; political violence   Risk development On 9 January during a speech in the city of Qom, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed protests had failed to weaken the Islamic Republic. Despite continued unrest, the Iranian regime is doubling down on the […]

Worldwide: FTX and the future of crypto

Date first published: 10/01/2023 Key sectors: technology; finance Key risks: credit risks; market contagion   Risk development In November 2022 FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange specializing in derivatives and leveraged products, filed for bankruptcy. FTX was once valued at US$32bln and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried was the most prominent name in crypto. Its failure highlights serious […]

Papua New Guinea: Lawlessness in Hela

Date first published: 03/01/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; business risks   Risk development On 16 December Prime Minister James Marape unveiled plans to extend by one year the country’s military presence in Hela province as well as in the neighbouring Enga and Southern Highlands provinces. The plans also […]

South Africa: A bruised, battered and divided ANC leadership

Date first published: 15/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty   Risk development On 13 December Members of Parliament (MPs) from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) voted to reject the adoption of a report which found prima facie evidence that President Cyril Ramaphosa had violated his oath of office because he […]

Venezuela: Fewer sanctions, more dialogue?

Date first published: 8/12/2022 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability; sanctions   Risk development On 26 November the United States (US) further eased oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing US oil firm Chevron to resume the production and exportation of Venezuelan oil and oil-related products for the first time since the sanctions […]

Qatar: A failed sportswashing operation?

Date first published: 01/12/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional stability; reputational risk   Risk development The 2022 FIFA World Cup, the world’s most popular sporting event, kicked off in Qatar on 20 November surrounded by controversies. The working conditions of migrant workers, the country’s human rights record and the process to select the host […]

Malaysia: Another chance at a stable government

Date first published: 24/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; economic risks   Risk development Long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as Prime Minister on 24 November ending a five-day political impasse that followed the 19 November general election which delivered Malaysia’s first ever hung parliament. Both Anwar and former […]

Haiti: Entrenched gang power

Date first published: 22/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; violent unrest; deadly clashes; crime; kidnap and ransom   Risk development On 6 November influential gang leader Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Cherizier announced that the almost two-months long blockade at the Varreux fuel port terminal in the capital Port-au-Prince would be lifted. The move allowed fuel […]

Pakistan: Attempted assassination of Imran Khan

Date first published: 15/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political violence   Risk development On 3 November former prime minister and chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan was shot in an assassination attempt in Wazirabad, Punjab province. Reports indicate that a gunman shot at Khan’s container-mounted-truck six times, with the former […]