Ones to Watch
Americas: Haiti’s president to be sworn-in; instability risks to persist Sectors: all Key Risks: social unrest; exposure to incidental violence; political instability In Haiti, president-elect Jovenel Moise is expected to be sworn-in on 7 February after a lengthy and controversial electoral process which began in late 2015. Moise, a businessman with no previous public […]
Americas: ELN hostage release could unblock formal peace talks Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; political stability In Colombia, the ELN guerrillas are expected to release former congressman Odin Sanchez Montes de Oca on 2 February. The release was agreed with the government in order to formalise exploratory peace talks on 7 February in Ecuador’s […]
Americas: Trump to move ahead with renegotiation or withdrawal from NAFTA Sectors: all Key Risks: increased protectionism; economic uncertainty; reduced FDI US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to begin renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) over the […]
Americas: Nicaragua’s President Ortega sworn in for third consecutive term Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; economic hardship In Nicaragua, former Sandinista guerrilla leader Daniel Ortega took office on 10 January for a third consecutive five-year presidential term with his wife, Rosario Murillo, as vice-president. The Ortega-Murillo ticket won 72.5 per cent of the […]
Americas: further protests against the ‘gasolinazo’ expected across Mexico Sectors: oil and gas; commercial; cargo transport Key Risks: looting; violent civil unrest; disruptive blockades In Mexico, further violent unrest over the controversial 14-20 per cent hike in gasoline and fuel prices effective since 1 January should be expected over the coming days. Protests against […]
Americas: protests likely to continue as president delays currency withdrawal Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest Police in Venezuela arrested more than 300 demonstrators following protests in several cities over President Nicolas Maduro’s decision to withdraw the 100 bolivar note from circulation. Maduro blamed the crisis on international sabotage after the planes carrying the new […]
Americas: Temer faces crucial Senate vote amid increased corruption-fallout risk Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; violent civil unrest; strikes In Brazil, the Senate is expected to hold the final vote on President Michel Temer’s proposed constitutional amendment to cap public spending on 13 December. Temer’s controversial fiscal austerity plan has recently fuelled […]
Americas: FARC resume disarmament and demobilisation process Sectors: all Key Risks: insurgency; terrorism; political stability In Colombia, the FARC resumed their disarmament and demobilisation process on 1 December following the Congress’ ratification of the 12 November revised final peace deal reached between the FARC and the government. The accord’s implementation will not be without challenges. […]
Americas: Cuba’s revolutionary leader dies Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; travel and road disruption In Cuba, the coming week will be marked by massive commemoration events following the death of the leader of the island’s socialist revolution Fidel Castro on 25 November. A nine-day mourning period began on 26 November. Thousands are expected at […]
Americas: Austerity measures to continue to fuel unrest in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: violent civil unrest; strikes; political instability In Brazil, further demonstrations to protest against a proposed constitutional amendment to cap public spending should be expected across the country’s main urban centres, particularly in the capital Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. […]
Americas: Colombia reaches revised final peace deal with the FARC Sectors: all Key Risks: insurgency; terrorism; political stability In Colombia, the coming weeks will be crucial in securing the 12 November revised final peace deal reached between the government and the FARC. The accord came six weeks after the rejection of an earlier agreement in […]
Americas: increased risk of unrest as US heads to the polls Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; electoral violence In the United States, a particularly polarising campaign in the run up to the 8 November general elections underscores the potential for localised protests, although violent incidents are highly unlikely to be widespread. The vast majority […]
