Ones to Watch
Date first published: 28/09/2017 Key sectors: military and defence; humanitarian aid; internal security Key risks: civil unrest; terrorism; foreign military confrontation Of the 72 per cent of Kurds in and out of the autonomous region who participated in the non-binding referendum on 25 September, 92.73 per cent voted ‘Yes’ to an independent Kurdistan. Celebrations broke out across the […]
Americas: Government and ELN begin temporary bilateral ceasefire Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, the government and the leftist ELN guerrillas began a temporary bilateral ceasefire on 1 October scheduled to last until 9 January 2018, with the possibility of an extension. The agreement, the first in over 50 years of conflict, is […]
Americas: International pressure on Venezuela continues to mount Sectors: all Key Risks: non-payment; FX shortage; political instability In Venezuela, the government continues to face increased international pressure against its authoritarian drive. On 22 September Canada imposed sanctions against 40 Venezuelan government officials, including President Nicolas Maduro, citing their ‘anti-democratic behaviour’. The measure freezes any assets […]
Americas: President Temer faces new criminal charges – and is likely to survive them Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; political uncertainty; delays to fiscal reform agenda; corruption fallout On 14 September in Brazil, General Prosecutor Rodrigo Janot charged President Michel Temer with obstruction of justice and racketeering alongside eight other political allies. The Supreme […]
Americas: Guatemala plunges into political crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; corruption fallout In Guatemala, the Supreme Court of Justice is expected to rule on whether to lift President Jimmy Morales’ immunity from prosecution. The Attorney General’s office and the UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) requested the judgement citing […]
Americas: Mapuche-related violence to persist Sectors: cargo transport; forestry; agriculture; security forces Key Risks: terrorism; commercial/property damage; cargo disruption In Chile, attacks against forestry, agriculture and transport personnel and assets will remain a concern in the southern Araucania, Bio Bio and Los Rios regions as indicated by the latest incident in Temuco, Araucania on 19 […]
Americas: Macri’s first election test looms Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Argentina, the policies of President Mauricio Macri will face the first, albeit far from definitive, test in the 13 August nationwide legislative primary elections, which are compulsory and will serve as an indication of the potential results of the 22 […]
Americas: Further US sanctions against Venezuela expected Sectors: all Key Risks: non-payment; FX shortage; civil unrest; deadly violence; political instability In Venezuela, further US sanctions are expected following the controversial 30 July vote to elect a National Constituent Assembly (NCA) that will be tasked with rewriting the constitution, a move expected to further entrench President […]
Americas: ELN and government to begin discussion on potential bilateral ceasefire Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, the left-wing ELN guerrillas and the government are scheduled to begin the third round of formal peace talks in Ecuador’s capital Quito on 24 July. In late June, both parties agreed to discuss a potential bilateral […]
Americas: Opposition to intensify protests ahead of controversial 30 July vote Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; deadly violence; political instability In Venezuela, the opposition announced plans to intensify demonstrations to demand early general elections and to protest against President Nicolas Maduro’s drive to rewrite the constitution. The move followed the 16 July […]
Americas: Senate to vote on controversial labour reform; Congress to vote on Temer’s trial Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; strikes; corruption fallout In Brazil, the Senate is expected to vote on the controversial government-backed labour reform bill on 11 July. A motion to fast-track the bill, which is part of President Michel […]
Americas: Potential trial for Venezuela’s dissident Attorney General to continue to fuel unrest Sectors: allKey Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; political instability; looting In Venezuela, Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz is expected to face a hearing on 4 July that could lead to her being put on trial over ‘grave faults’ and ‘treason’. The government, […]
