Date first published: 08/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy continuity; regulatory uncertainty; political instability; political violence; civil unrest Risk development Leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly won the 30 October presidential runoff – arguably the most polarised election in Brazil’s history. The historic comeback is one of several political shifts […]
Date first published: 27/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; economic risks Risk Development The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing saw President Xi Jinping break decades of precedent and secure a historic third term as General Secretary. His accruement of political power came after successive breaches of […]
Date first published: 25/10/2022 Key sectors: tourism; construction; private property; energy; cargo transport; security forces Key risks: arson attacks; land occupations; disruptive blockades; civil unrest Risk development A significant uptick in indigenous Mapuche-related violence has been observed in the southern provinces of Neuquen and Rio Negro. On 14 October at least two hooded, armed […]
Date first published: 18/10/2022 Key sectors: energy; military; economy Key risks: policy; economic Risk development On 5 October OPEC+ members, spearhead by Saudi Arabia, decided to cut oil production in a bid to raise falling prices. Non-OPEC member countries, including Russia, are part of OPEC +. The United States (US) immediately responded by accusing […]
Date first published: 11/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; political violence; political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development On 30 September Captain Ibrahim Toure launched a coup in the capital Ouagadougou and deposed military leader Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. By midnight, Toure dissolved the transitional government and suspended the constitution. Toure’s putsch came just nine […]
Date first published: 04/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; protests Risk development Since 17 September at least 83 protesters and security force personnel were killed and over 1,000 protesters were arrested following the death of Mahsa Amini, killed in police custody for failure to comply with the hijab dress code […]
Date first published: 27/09/2022 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: war on land; war at sea; arms race Risk development On 31 August the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) began mass production of an extended-range version of their domestically produced Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM), which was initially approved in 2020, in FY2022/23, citing China’s […]
Date first published: 20/09/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest Risk development The general election on 11 September produced a two-seat majority for the right-wing opposition bloc composed of the Moderate Party, the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), Christian Democrats and Liberals. Although the ruling Social Democrats remained the largest […]
Date first published: 13/09/2022 Key sectors: technology Key risks: supply chain disruptions; technological disruption Risk development In early September 2022, Washington introduced new licence requirements on the export of high-end semiconductor components and machinery to Chinese companies. The move follows the United States (US) banning the sale to China of electronic design automation (EDA) […]
Date first published: 06/09/2022 Key sectors: oil & gas Key risks: war on land; political violence; political stability Risk development On 27 August at least 32 people were killed and 159 others were injured during clashes in Tripoli – the most significant since 2020 – between militias aligned to the Tripoli-based Government of National […]
Date first published: 30/08/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: sanctions Risk development On 29 August Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi declared that an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into ‘safeguards issues’ around unexplained traces of uranium found at undeclared sites must end before any agreement to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan […]
Date first published: 23/08/2022 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; electricity Key risks: terrorism; insurgency; violent crime; targeted attacks; kidnapping Risk development On 20 August leftist President Gustavo Petro announced the suspension of arrest warrants and extradition requests for the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN)’s negotiators amid fresh efforts to restart peace talks with […]
