Americas: Chile’s highly uncertain general elections likely to lead to presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; governability; civil unrest In Chile, highly uncertain general elections scheduled for 21 November are expected to lead to a 19 December presidential runoff potentially between far-right former congressman Antonio Kast and leftist lawyer Gabriel Boric. […]
Date first published: 09/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability Risk development Thousands of Georgians, spearheaded by the United Nation Movement (UNM), have joined protests in the last week, both against the 31 October mayoral elections and the imprisonment of former president and an opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili. They alleged that the elections […]
Americas: Argentina’s ruling FdT coalition to face heavy losses in 14 November midterm elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; governability; civil unrest In Argentina, the ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) leftist coalition is expected to face heavy losses in the crucial 14 November midterm legislative elections. Recent polls suggest that the main opposition Juntos por […]
Date first published: 02/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development On 25 October General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a military coup in the capital Khartoum in which Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several of his ministers were arrested, the military-civilian Sovereign Council government was dissolved and a state of […]
Americas: Nicaragua’s President Ortega to secure controversial re-election on 7 November Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; arbitrary detentions; crackdown on political opposition In Nicaragua, leftist President Daniel Ortega is expected to secure a fourth consecutive presidential term in the highly controversial 7 November general elections. The vote is set to be neither free nor fair […]
Date first published: 26/10/2021 Key sectors:all; oil and gas; cargo transport Key risks:civil unrest; business disruption; interruption Risk development Several recent incidents of disruptive unrest have proven to be stark reminders of the high potential for such events to inflict a significant negative economic impact on key sectors. In October labour grievances and opposition […]
Americas: Indigenous-led protests to put pressure on Ecuador’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; civil unrest; business disruption In Ecuador, the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) plans to go ahead with nationwide demonstrations scheduled for 26 October to protest against right-wing President Guillermo Lasso’s government. Social movements, trade unions, teachers and other groups plan […]
Date first published: 19/10/2021 Key sectors: finance Key risks: bank runs, monetary policy Risk development 81 countries representing over 90 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) are either researching or looking to launch their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 15 countries, including China, South Korea, and Sweden are running pilot CBDC […]
Americas: Chile’s protest movement reaches two-year anniversary amid persistent risk of unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; protest-related violence; political instability In Chile, on 18 October nationwide demonstrations and related disruption are expected to mark the two-year anniversary of the anti-government protest movement that erupted in October 2019. Although the intensity of the protests has significantly […]
Date: 07/10/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: volatility; supply chain disruptions; social discontent Risk development Over the last month, householders and factories across at least 19 Chinese provinces experienced some form of power curbs and power rationing. In some parts of the country, large manufacturers and power consumers had their power disconnected entirely for […]
Americas: Ecuador’s Lasso, Chile’s Pinera to face pressure over the ‘Pandora Papers’ leak Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; corruption; civil unrest Ecuador’s conservative President Guillermo Lasso and Chile’s right-wing President Sebastian Pinera are set to face growing pressure over their alleged implication in tax violations following the recent ‘Pandora Papers’ leak. On 10 October Ecuador’s National Assembly voted […]
Date first published: 30/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; business; economy Risk Development The German federal elections held on 26 September produced a fragmented Bundestag. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) secured a narrow victory with 25.7 per cent, defeating the ruling CDU/CSU conservative bloc which attained a historic low of […]
