Americas: Arrest of Sinaloa cartel leaders set to escalate violence in Mexico
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence; organised crime violence
In Mexico, on 28 July the US ambassador to the country stated that the 25 July arrest of Sinaloa cartel – one of the world’s most powerful narco trafficking organisations – leaders Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada and Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman’s son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, by US authorities in El Paso, Texas was a “direct strike” against international organised crime. The arrests are part of an effort to dismantle fentanyl production and distribution. Zambada had evaded authorities for decades. The arrests also came amid an uptick in gang-related violence in Chiapas state – where the Jalisco and Sinaloa cartels are vying for control over drug smuggling routes – that drove nearly 600 refugees into Guatemala last week. While the arrests were considered a tactical success, they are likely to set off an internal war for control over the cartel and territory, precipitating an escalation of violence in the country.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Sri Lanka’s high-stakes presidential election scheduled for 21 September
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political instability; policy continuity; economic risks
In Sri Lanka, on 26 July the Election Commission announced that the next presidential election will be held on 21 September. President Ranil Wickremesinghe has since registered his re-election bid, with leader of the opposition Sajith Premadasa and leftist lawmaker Anura Dissanayake widely expected to join the race. The vote will be the first presidential election since Wickremesinghe took office in July 2022 through a parliamentary vote after his predecessor, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, resigned and fled the country amid widespread unrest caused by its worst-ever economic crisis. While economic reforms under a US$2.9bln IMF programme have significantly brought down inflation and recovered foreign exchange reserves, higher taxes and costs of living pressures have fuelled public discontentment against the government. Both challengers have pledged to modify the reforms, which could jeopardise the island’s fragile economic recovery and return political uncertainty.
Click here to access Sri Lanka’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Georgia’s opposition challenges divisive ‘foreign agents’ law in Constitutional Court
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest
In Georgia, on 29 July the main opposition United National Movement (UNM) party filed a lawsuit against the controversial “foreign agents” law in the Constitutional Court. This came after on 16 July President Salome Zourabichvili filed a similar lawsuit in the court, claiming that the law violates a constitutional clause requiring the government to make every effort to join the EU and NATO. On 9 July Brussels halted Tbilisi’s EU accession process in response to the law’s passage on 14 May. The legislation allows the government to label media and civil society groups as “organisations carrying the interests of a foreign power” if they receive over 20 per cent of their funding from abroad. In April and May the law’s introduction sparked weeks of massive demonstrations in Tbilisi. Further pressure to scrap the law is likely.
Click here to access Georgia’s Global Intake country profiles.
Europe: Hundreds of flights cancelled at Germany’s Frankfurt Airport as climate protests intensify
Sectors: all; aviation; transport
Key Risks: civil unrest; travel disruptions; economic
In Germany, on 25 July eight people were detained and 270 flights were cancelled after climate protesters damaged the perimeter fence, entered the premises and glued themselves to the tarmac at Frankfurt Airport. This came after 31 flights were cancelled on 24 July amid a similar protest in Cologne Bonn Airport. On 24 July climate activists attempted similar disruptive protests in Finland, Norway, Switzerland and Spain. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser condemned the protests and called for tighter security restrictions at airports. Such protests have increased dramatically over the past year, causing major financial losses for airports and air traffic operators. Environmental groups have called for coordinated disruptive protests at airports across Europe this summer, demanding that governments end fossil fuel use by 2030. Further disruptive protests are likely.
Click here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Majdal Shams attack in occupied Golan Heights to exacerbate Israel-Hizbullah tensions
Sectors: all
Key risks: war, regional escalation
In Syria, on 27 July 12 people – including children – were killed and at least 42 others were injured in a suspected Hizbullah rocket attack on the Syrian Druze village of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Tel Aviv immediately blamed Hizbullah for the attack, assuming an accidental strike on civilian areas with rockets intended for a nearby Israel Defense Forces (IDF) base. However, Hizbullah vehemently denied responsibility and claimed that the blast came from an Israeli missile defence projectile. While the Golan’s Druze widely identify as Syrians, Tel Aviv used the incident to launch preliminary retaliatory strikes on suspected Hizbullah sites in southern and eastern Lebanon on 28 July. However, the Israeli response is expected to continue with the Israeli security cabinet reportedly authorising further strikes. This will likely further heighten Israel-Hizbullah tensions and risk a further escalation of the conflict.
Click here to access Syria’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Africa Corps take heavy losses amid operations in Mali’s Kidal region
Sectors: mining; cross-border trade
Key risks: internal conflict; terrorism; political instability
In Mali, on July 27 at least 12 soldiers and 20 Africa Corps, formerly known as Wagner Group, fighters were killed in clashes with Arab and Tuareg rebels – known as the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP) – near Tinzaouten, Kidal region. Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Africa Corps recently intensified operations against CSP fighters along the Mali-Algeria border. The joint FAMa-Africa Corps operation briefly captured Inafarek, Kidal region before retreating from the town. The seizure and increased use of military drones has boosted Bamako’s counter-insurgency strategy in the northern regions. Counter-insurgency operations have intensified since Bamako renounced the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement on 26 January. However, recent losses have dented Bamako’s momentum in countering Azawad rebels after the capture of Kidal on 14 November 2023. Operations along the border regions are likely to persist in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Mali’s Global Intake country profile.
