Americas: Social organisations urge extension of expired government, ELN ceasefire in Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping
In Colombia, on 4 August over 700 social organisations in the Humanitarian Coordinator association urged President Gustavo Petro’s government and the ELN guerrilla group to extend the bilateral ceasefire that expired on 3 August. The association noted a 24 per cent reduction in ceasefire violations in H1 and a 64 per cent y-o-y decrease. On 3 August the government accepted in principle a UN proposal to extend the ceasefire, but the ELN reportedly made this contingent on their removal from the government’s list of illegal organised armed groups, and on other unspecified conditions. The agreement was previously extended on 6 February, with the ELN also pledging to cease kidnappings, a commitment lifted on 6 May due to alleged government failures. Although Petro will continue to prioritise negotiations with the group as part of ambitious efforts to achieve ‘total peace’ in the country, further setbacks and challenges are likely.
Click here to access Colombia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and flees Bangladesh amid deadly unrest
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political violence; political instability; violent clashes
In Bangladesh, on 5 August Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country as tens of thousands of anti-government protesters descended on the capital Dhaka in defiance of a nationwide curfew imposed a day earlier. Protesters stormed the prime minister’s official residence and vandalised many other residences of state officials and buildings affiliated with the ruling Awami League. Bangladesh Railway indefinitely suspended all its services, and all flights at Dhaka’s Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport have been suspended for six hours starting from 17:30 local time due to the unrest. On 4 August at least 91 people were killed and hundreds others were injured in clashes amid renewed student protests across the country. Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman has since assumed control and announced plans to form an interim government. While Hasina’s resignation will broadly mitigate a further escalation of violence, sporadic protests and clashes are expected to persist.
Click here to access Bangladesh’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine receives first batch of F-16s amid Russian gains in Donetsk Oblast
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 4 August Russian forces reportedly advanced into the city of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, which has been under attack since February and at risk of falling for the past two months. Russian forces have also made wider gains further south in Donetsk Oblast in recent weeks, seizing Prohres on 21 July and Tymofiivka on 31 July and pushing towards the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway that serves as a crucial Ukrainian supply route in the region. Capture of the road would likely necessitate further Ukrainian tactical withdrawals, negatively impacting morale. Separately, on 3 August President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Kyiv received the first 10 F-16 fighter jets pledged by its Western allies. The fighter jets are unlikely to have a dramatic short-term impact on the battlefield but may push Russian bombers further away from the front and improve Kyiv’s air defences.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Several injured as violent anti-immigrant protests spread across the United Kingdom
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; xenophobia
In the United Kingdom (UK), on 2-4 August several police officers were injured and dozens of people were detained as protests fuelled by Islamophobic and anti-immigrant disinformation spread countrywide including in Sunderland, Liverpool, Bristol, Manchester, Rotherham and Bolton. Rioters looted stores, clashed with police and targeted mosques and asylum centres. The protests came after over 50 police officers were injured in clashes near a mosque in Southport on 30 July and after over 100 people were arrested following clashes near Downing Street, London on 31 July. The unrest came after on 29 July three children were killed in a stabbing attack by a 17-year-old suspect in Southport. Police stated that the attack was not extremism-related but far-right groups spread claims online that the assailant was Muslim. Authorities announced new security measures at mosques and increased police presence to prevent attacks. The risk of violent protests spreading is high.
Click here to access the United Kingdom’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran to provoke Iranian retaliation
Sectors: all
Key risks: external conflict; regional escalation
In Iran, on 31 July Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a suspected Israeli operation in Tehran. Hanyieh – who was attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian – was considered a pragmatic figure within Hamas. The assassination caused a significant escalation of regional tensions. Both Tehran and Hamas have vowed to retaliate, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) stating that Tel Aviv would receive “severe punishment at the appropriate time, place and manner.” While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not claim responsibility for the assassination, he pledged a forceful response to any attack on Israel. The killing of Haniyeh – who was a principal participant in the Gaza ceasefire talks – also dealt a significant blow to the negotiations. An Iranian retaliation, possibly with the involvement of Iranian-backed groups – including the Lebanese Hizbullah – across the region, is likely imminent.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: DRC soldiers flee as M23 captures Ishasha town, North Kivu province
Sectors: cross-border trade
Key risks: internal conflict; regional escalation; violent clashes
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), on 4 August an unknown number of soldiers and 98 police officers fled into neighbouring Uganda as March 23 Movement (M23) rebels captured the key border town of Ishasha, North Kivu province. The desertion came as the Luanda-mediated truce between Kinshasa and Kigali came into effect on 4 August. M23 has made steady gains in 2024, notably with the capture of the strategic city of Kanyabayonga, North Kivu province, on 30 June. Despite numerous ceasefires and diplomatic efforts, Kigali has maintained support for M23 amid its offensive and efforts to de-escalate the conflict since 2022 have failed. Kinshasa and Kigali have exchanged threats, including when Rwandan President Paul Kagame put Rwandan forces on high alert along the Rwanda-DRC border on 23 June. Deep tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali will undermine the success of future ceasefire talks.
Click here to access the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Global Intake country profile.
