Americas: Government declares state of emergency amid escalating violence in southern Jamaica
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent crime; organised crime
In Jamaica, on 14 August Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared a state of emergency (SoE) – typically including curfews, longer detention periods without charges and warrantless property searches – in the southern Clarendon parish after on 11 August eight people were killed and nine were injured in separate shooting attacks. Six people were arrested in relation to the shootings – that authorities stated were a result of a criminal feud that will potentially incite reprisal attacks. The country has continued to struggle to contain escalating gang violence, despite the number of gangs reportedly shrinking from 400 to 185 in the past five years. In 2023 it ranked the second deadliest country in the Latin American and Caribbean region with a homicide rate of 60.9 per 100,000 people. Despite the SoE, the risk of reprisal killings and other gang-related crimes will remain high.
Click here to access Jamaica’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter elected premier in whirlwind week in Thai politics
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; economic risks
In Thailand, on 16 August Paetongtarn Shinawatra – the daughter of polarising former premier and de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party (PTP) Thaksin Shinawatra – was elected prime minister in a parliamentary vote following the shock dismissal of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, on 14 August. The 37-year-old political neophyte was nominated by the PTP and its 10 coalition partners, which enjoy a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives. The swift consolidation of support for Paetongtarn will likely mitigate further political instability and largely ensure policy continuity, although the recent rollout of Srettha’s flagship US$13.8bln digital wallet scheme could be at risk of being stalled, or even scrapped entirely. Paetongtarn is expected to finalise her cabinet in the coming weeks and her premiership will likely face stiff opposition from the country’s conservative military-royalist forces, particularly over the prospect of Thaksin’s increased influence.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Belarus deploys more troops to Ukrainian border amid heightened tensions
Sectors: all
Key Risks: border clashes; war-on-land
In Belarus, on 18 August Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced additional deployments to the border with Ukraine. Without providing evidence, he claimed that over 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers were based along the border. Ukrainian officials denied the allegations and claimed that they did not witness additional Belarusian deployments. Lukashenko also gave contradictory claims about his willingness to support peace talks and his support for Russia. This came after on 10 August Minsk announced it was returning additional troops to the Ukrainian border following their withdrawal on 13 July in response to Ukrainian drones allegedly violating Belarusian airspace on 9 August. The risk of provocations along the border will remain high in the short term amid Kyiv’s ongoing cross-border offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast since 6 August. Moscow’s potential use of Belarusian territory to open a new front amid the Ukraine war cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Belarus’ and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profiles.
Europe: Increased risk of civil unrest in Slovakia over cultural institutions overhaul
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Slovakia, on 13 August around 18,000 people gathered in Bratislava to demand the resignation of Culture Minister Martina Simkovicova and Interior Minister Boris Susko. The protest was triggered by the recent dismissals of National Theatre director Matej Drlicka and National Gallery head Alexandra Kusa, which the protesters claimed were politically motivated. It also took place amid an increasingly tense political environment and deepening societal polarisation during Prime Minister Robert Fico’s fourth term, marked by scandals and controversial rulings. Protesters claim Simkovicova is seeking to dismantle cultural infrastructure, while Susko recently made highly controversial changes to the criminal code. The risk of protests – which will likely remain peaceful – will remain high in the short term while increasing antagonism between the government and the opposition will sustain this risk in the medium term.
Click here to access Slovakia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: First polio case highlights deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza
Sectors: all
Key risks: war; humanitarian emergency
In Gaza, on 16 August the Health Ministry reported the first case of polio virus. The Ministry attributed the emergence of the polio virus to the deteriorating humanitarian conditions, including medical supply shortages and the spread of sewage water in the streets. The announcement followed a UN call for a humanitarian pause in fighting to allow for a polio vaccination campaign targeting Gazan children – 95 per cent vaccination coverage is needed to prevent the virus’ spread. UNICEF announced that vaccination will be conducted in two rounds in the coming months. However, the Health Ministry indicated that an effective inoculation campaign is contingent on a ceasefire allowing medical teams free access across Gaza. Public health officials and humanitarian NGO have repeatedly warned of the growing vulnerability to outbreaks of disease in Gaza due to the war. Humanitarian conditions are expected to further deteriorate.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Opposition call for long overdue reforms to Ivorian politics as elections loom
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Ivory Coast, on 13 August former president and leader of the African People’s Party Laurent Gbagbo held talks with Generations et Peuple Solidaires (GPS), Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI) and nine other parties to discuss political reforms. In a joint statement, the parties urged current President Alassane Ouattara to pass an electoral reform and foster an inclusive and open political dialogue. However, the arrest of two GPS junior leaders over disturbing the peace indicates a potential crackdown in response to opposition demands. Although Gbagbo is barred from running, he will likely rally opposition support for a candidate to effectively challenge the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHCP). Civil unrest is likely to increase if Ouattara announces his candidacy for the October 2025 presidential elections with the opposition likely to rally around Gbagbo in response.
Click here to access Ivory Coast’s Global Intake country profile.
