Americas: Widespread protests against constitutional reforms erupt across Mexico
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption
In Mexico, on 25 August nationwide protests erupted against incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s proposed constitutional reforms – including subjecting 7,000 judgeships to election and removing seven autonomous bodies. Demonstrators denounced the reforms which precipitated a nationwide judicial strike on 19 August and a peso decline amid heightened investor concerns. They argued the reforms would weaken checks on presidential power and threaten judicial independence. The protests came after on 23 August electoral authorities allocated the ruling Morena – which holds a majority in both houses of Congress – and allied parties 73 per cent of the seats in the lower house despite winning 60 per cent in the 2 June general elections. Risks of further civil unrest and business disruption will be heightened ahead of the proposed reform bill’s debate when the newly elected Congress is sworn in on 1 September.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Parliamentary attempt to revise local election law roils Indonesia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Indonesia, on 27 August the General Elections Commission will open the registration period for candidates in the upcoming 27 November local elections. This electoral rigmarole has taken on greater prominence after on 22 August protests erupted nationwide against attempts by the House of Representatives to amend the local election law that would defy a 21 August Constitutional Court ruling easing nominating thresholds and clarifying minimum age requirements for the elections. The legislature expedited amendments to reverse parts of the ruling to shut out opposition parties and favour candidates aligned with the governing coalition of President Joko Widodo and President-elect Prabowo Subianto. Fierce public backlash and subsequent protests prompted the legislature to rescind the revision. Despite the concession, political instability is certain to heighten ahead of the change of government in October and local elections in November. Further sporadic protests cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Indonesia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukrainian forces reportedly launch raid into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Russia, on 27 August the governor of Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, announced that Ukrainian forces had launched a raid into the region. He added that, according to the Defence Ministry, the situation was “difficult but under control.” A prominent Russian media channel affiliated with the war effort reported that clashes were taking place in the town of Nekhoteyevka, which lies immediately east of the town of Kozacha Lopan in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast. Another media channel claimed that approximately 500 troops had attacked border checkpoints in Nekhoteyevka and Shebekino. However, some Russian media channels denied the reports, which cannot be independently confirmed. There have been reports of limited Ukrainian incursions into Belgorod Oblast since 6 August when Kyiv launched a major offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Fighting in the area is likely to continue.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake country profiles.
Europe: Germany’s Saxony and Thuringia to hold state elections on 1 September
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Germany, on 1 September voters in Thuringia and Saxony will head to the polls to elect their state representatives. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) appears to be on track to win at least in Thuringia where it has been leading the polls with around 30 per cent. The party is equally strong in Saxony where it is also polling at around 30 per cent, but the race is much closer there, with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) also polling around 30 per cent. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats are set to gain around 6 per cent in both states, while the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party could reach up to 20 per cent in Thuringia and 10 per cent in Saxony. Such results would likely complicate the government-formation process, with no party willing to cooperate with AfD.
Click here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Lebanese Hizbullah and Israeli forces in massive cross-border missile exchange
Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; regional escalation
In Lebanon, on 25 August Hizbullah launched a barrage of rockets and drones at northern and central Israel, targeting Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military sites in retaliation for the 30 July killing of senior Hizbullah commander Fuad Sukr in an IDF strike in Beirut. Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stated that the group’s primary objective was a military intelligence base near Tel Aviv. Concurrently, Israeli forces carried out pre-emptive strikes across southern Lebanon with around 100 fighter jets, claiming to have prevented a larger attack. Three Lebanese militants and one Israeli soldier were reportedly killed in the exchange – the most intense since the start of the confrontation on 8 October 2023. While the scale of the confrontation is escalatory in nature, both sides signalled their intentions not to pursue further escalation. Nevertheless, sporadic tit-for-tat attacks are expected to continue.
Click here to access Lebanon’s and here to access Israel’s Global Intake country profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 200 killed in deadliest attack in Burkina Faso since start of insurgency
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest; extremist attacks
In Burkina Faso, on 24 August 200 people were killed and 300 others were injured in a Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) attack in Barsalogho, Centre Nord region. JNIM stated that the attack was a response to local residents digging defensive trenches around the village. The injured were transported to Kaya city, Centre-Nord, and all hospitals in the city were mobilised to treat the injured. State and regional officials went to Kaya to calm the local populace and support efforts to help injured civilians. This was the deadliest attack since the military junta under Captain Ibrahim Traore took power on 2 October 2022. Despite the expansion of the military and the recruitment of local auxiliaries, counter-terrorism operations have failed to diminish JNIM’s fighting strength. JNIM will intensify attacks in the north and east of the country as Ouagadougou struggles to contain the insurgency.
Click here to access Burkina Faso’s Global Intake country profile.
