Americas: Opposition organisations to strike against Milei’s veto of pension reform in Argentina
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption
In Argentina, on 4 September retirees and multiple opposition organisations – including the Workers’ Union of the Popular Economy – are set to protest in the capital Buenos Aires against President Javier Milei’s plan to veto a pension reform passed by the Senate to hike pensions in line with the country’s triple-digit inflation. The reform would risk the strict fiscal balance pushed by Milei’s administration that claimed that the bill’s “only objective was to destroy the government’s economic programme”, as it would have required spending an extra 1.2 per cent of GDP. The veto has widened the rift between Milei and the opposition-controlled Congress – which could bypass it by approving the law with a two-thirds majority. This came amid Milei’s austerity measures to rein in high inflation. Increased police presence and business disruption are likely. The risk of protests with the potential to turn violent will remain heightened.
Click here to access Argentina’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippines and China in blame game after latest ship collision in South China Sea
Sectors: all
Key Risks: accidental conflict; conflict escalation; regional conflict
In the Philippines, on 31 August the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) accused its Chinese counterpart of deliberately ramming one of its largest cutters near Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea. While no injuries were reported, the PCG reported that the 97-metre vessel sustained damage after it was rammed “several times”. Beijing refuted the claims and asserted that it was the PCG that intentionally collided with their vessel. Despite recent attempts to de-escalate, the confrontation marked the fifth such incident in the past month in Sabina Shoal. Located 140 km from the coast of the Philippines’s Palawan province and 1,200 km from China’s Hainan province, the waters have become the latest flashpoint in the long-running maritime territorial dispute after Manila accused Beijing of attempting to expand the shoal through land reclamation. Further maritime confrontations are likely, heightening the risk of accidental conflict amid a cycle of escalation.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Russia’s President Putin to visit Mongolia amid calls to enforce ICC arrest warrant
Sectors: all
Key Risks: international pressure; diplomatic tensions
In Mongolia, on 3 September President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh will host his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for the 85th anniversary of the Soviet-Mongolian victory over Japanese forces in 1939. Mongolia is a signatory of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) which compels it to enforce arrest warrants issued by the court. This includes Putin, who was issued an ICC arrest warrant in March 2023 over alleged war crimes committed in the war in Ukraine. However, despite calls by Kyiv for Ulaanbaatar to act on its ICC obligations, it is unlikely to do so, with reports emerging on 30 August that the Kremlin had received assurances that Putin would not be arrested. On the same day, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that he had “no worries” about the upcoming trip, adding that Moscow had a “wonderful dialogue with their friends in Mongolia”.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake country profile and here to access Mongolia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Protests against Rio Tinto lithium mine in Serbia to continue
Sectors: mining
Key Risks: civil unrest
In Serbia, on 1 September thousands of people rallied in Belgrade against an alleged crackdown by authorities on environmental activists opposed to Rio Tinto’s planned lithium mine in Jadar Valley. Protesters gathered in front of the Radio Television Serbia headquarters demanding that the state media report on the environmental impacts of the mine. This followed a series of protests against the mine in August which were triggered by the 16 July reinstatement of Rio Tinto’s licence to build the mine. Protesters claim the mine will pollute water in a local river. The government dismissed the environmental concerns and claimed that the protests were part of Western “hybrid warfare” against Belgrade. Although the government revoked Rio Tinto’s licence following similar protests in January 2022, it is unlikely to do it again, sustaining the risk of further protests.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Recovery of dead hostages in Gaza sparks fierce anti-government backlash in Israel
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Israel, on 1 September hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in Tel Aviv took to the streets to demand a ceasefire deal that would involve the release of Israeli hostages in Hamas custody in the largest demonstration since the start of the Gaza war. This came after reports emerged that the bodies of six Israeli hostages were recovered by Israeli forces in Gaza. Concurrently, Histadrut – the country’s main labour federation – announced a nationwide general strike in support of a ceasefire deal. However, on 2 September a labour court ordered the end of the strike at the request of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who argued that it aimed to “improperly influence significant policy decisions related to state security.” Nevertheless, unrest is expected to continue, with many blaming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his religious-nationalist coalition partners for the failure to secure the release of the hostages.
Click here to access Israel’s Global Intake country profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: CSP signs agreement with FPL to coordinate efforts in northern Mali
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional instability; conflict escalation
In Mali, on 29 August the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP) – a coalition of Tuareg and Arab rebels – signed a mutual defence agreement with the Niger-based Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL) after a series of meetings in Tizaouaten, Kidal region. The CSP contacted several Tuareg and Arab groups across the Sahel as it seeks to expand its influence and coordinate efforts for an independent Azawad. The agreement was signed amid reports of government and Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) forces massing in Gao and Kidal regions to recapture Tinzaouaten under ‘Operation Vengeance’ after 47 soldiers and 84 Africa Corps fighters were killed in Tinzaouaten, Kidal, between 25 and 27 July. The FPL and other Sahelian rebel groups will likely provide support to the CSP as Bamako restarts ground operations against the CSP in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Mali’s Global Intake country profile.
