Americas: Protests likely for President-elect Sheinbaum’s inauguration ceremony in Mexico
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; traffic disruption
In Mexico, on 1 October, teachers affiliated with the National Coordinator of Education Workers (CNTE), the Teaching School students and judicial workers will likely hold planned demonstrations during President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s inauguration in the capital Mexico City. The teacher and student strikes are an effort to pressure Sheinbaum to resume dialogue – paused by outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s administration – on improving educational and labour conditions. The planned protests follow a nationwide strike by judicial workers that erupted on 21 August against AMLO’s judicial reform to change the appointment of judges to an election system – which was approved on 11 September and endorsed by Sheinbaum – amid concerns of democratic backsliding. As AMLO’s protégé, Sheinbaum’s presidency represents a continuation of his priorities and legacy. The risk of protests will remain heightened and significant security presence and traffic disruption should be expected.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand begins financial stimulus rollout to its first group of eligible citizens
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks
In Thailand, on 26 September financial stimulus distributions were introduced to revitalise the economy following years of sluggish post-pandemic GDP growth. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra announced on 25 September that a cash injection of more than THB145bln (US$4.45bln) to Thai citizens aged 16 and above will create an “economic whirlwind”. In the first stage, those eligible to receive THB10,000 (US$310) include those on social welfare, as well as individuals with disabilities. Approximately three million eligible people were able to instantly access their stimulus funds the next day. While an exact date has not yet been announced, the government confirmed that the details of the second and third phases of the handout are in progress. The success of the programme and its impact on the economy will become evident in the coming months.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Kazakhstan to hold referendum on nuclear power on 6 October amid energy insecurity
Sectors: energy
Key Risks: energy security; environmental activism; government crackdown
In Kazakhstan, on 6 October citizens will vote in a countrywide referendum on building the country’s first nuclear power plant. Although Astana is the world’s largest producer of raw uranium, it has not had its own nuclear power production since 1995. The referendum will come ahead of a winter when the country is likely to suffer renewed widespread electricity blackouts. Astana’s rapidly ageing and inefficient energy infrastructure poses a critical threat to its economic – and by consequence political – stability. However, it remains uncertain if the nuclear power project would improve energy security, given that collapsing transmission networks remain the principal cause of blackouts and would be unable to handle the additional supply of energy without massive investments into repair. The referendum also faces widespread opposition due to environmental concerns. Authorities are likely to crack down on activists opposed to the project.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Czech Republic’s government weakened amid row over Minister for Digitalisation
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In the Czech Republic, on 24 September Prime Minister Petr Fiala dismissed Minister for Digitalisation and Regional Development Ivan Bartos. The move came after Bartos resigned as the head of the Pirate party following the party’s debacle in the 21 October regional election. Pirates members – including Bartos himself – perceived Fiala’s move as a “betrayal” and the party is now considering leaving the government. Should they go through with the move, it will not significantly threaten political stability in the country as the ruling coalition has sufficient seats in parliament even without Pirates. However, it will weaken the government as it will lose two more ministers – including Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky. Fiala’s move indicates that the ruling coalition seeks to rebuild its public image ahead of the October 2025 election, moving the coalition further to the right.
Click here to access the Czech Republic’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Tensions between Hizbullah and Israel high after IDF’s assassination of Hizbullah leader
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war-on-land
In Lebanon, on 27 September Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike on the group’s central command headquarters in the Dahiyeh suburb, southern Beirut. An IDF spokesperson stated that over 20 other members of the group and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan were killed alongside Nasrallah. The assassination suggested potential Israeli infiltration within Hizbullah and was seen as a major intelligence failure for the organisation. At least 1,000 Lebanese were killed, 6,000 were injured and nearly one million were displaced since IDF attacks began escalating in the country, following the pagers explosion on 17 September. Tehran warned it would take necessary measures to defend its national and security interests, though direct action against Tel Aviv seems unlikely. An IDF ground invasion cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Lebanon’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: EACJ court case against Rwanda threatens ceasefire in eastern DRC
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional tensions
In the DRC, on 27 September Deputy Minister for Justice and Legal Affairs Samuel Mbemba submitted a case against Rwanda for Kigalis’s “violations of its sovereignty and national integrity” to the East Africa Court of Justice (EACJ). The case accuses Rwandan forces of operating in North Kivu province alongside March 23 Movement (M23) and conducting mass killing, rape and looting. Kigali categorically denies the claims and levies similar accusations at DRC’s military. Talks between the two countries in Angola between 14 and 15 September bore no results, hampering the likelihood of a permanent ceasefire. Additionally, Kinshasa has submitted a case against Kigali at the African Court on Human and People’s Rights. As initial hearings get underway to establish the EACJ’s jurisdiction over the case on 3 October, tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa will rise further in the short term.
Click here to access the DRC’s Global Intake country profile and here to access Rwanda’s Global Intake profile.
