Americas: Protest against US sanctions ahead of Trump’s incoming administration in Cuba
Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruption; bilateral tensions; civil unrest
In Cuba, on 20 December thousands protested in front of the US embassy in the capital Havana over long-standing US sanctions on the country. The protest – led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel and Raul Castro – came ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s 20 January inauguration amid concerns over the potential for his administration to introduce harsher policies towards the country. President Diaz-Canel bemoaned President Joe Biden’s failure to lift sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term and reverse Trump’s designation of the country as a state sponsor of terrorism. The government blames the US measures for the country’s severe economic crisis, including double-digit inflation and shortages of basic goods. As the protest – a first of its kind in more than a decade – signals a more confrontational posture, the risk of further protests will be heightened following Trump’s inauguration.
Click here to access Cuba’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Myanmar rebel group captures key junta stronghold in Ann, Rakhine state
Sectors: all
Key Risks: ethnic separatism; violent clashes; war-on-land
In Myanmar, on 20 December the Arakan Army (AA) rebel group seized the ruling junta’s Western Command headquarters in Ann township, Rakhine state. The capture of the stronghold in Ann is the largest gain made by the Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of armed rebel factions including AA and the Myanmar National Democratic Army Alliance (MNDAA) – since the MNDAA captured the city of Lashio, Shan state on 3 August. The fall of the military headquarters at Ann is the 12th of 17 townships in Rakhine to be captured since the AA’s offensive began in November, and exposes the neighbouring Magwe region to further rebel offensives. While the junta has been pushed back to Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Munaung along Rakhine’s coastline, clashes are highly likely to continue in Gwa township to the south of Ann as the junta seeks to reclaim territory.
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Eurasia: Slovakia’s PM Fico travels to Russia in bid to extend Ukraine’s gas transit deal
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key Risks: energy security; supply disruptions; geopolitical tensions
In Russia, on 22 December Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico travelled to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly to discuss gas supplies. Fico’s visit came after Slovak, Hungarian, Austrian and Italian energy groups urged to extend a Russian gas transit deal to the EU through Ukraine on 17 December as they fear a potential energy crisis and economic fallout caused by a cut-off. Ukraine had repeatedly stated it would not renew the deal – which expires on 31 December – as it seeks to deprive Moscow of revenues. However, on 19 December Kyiv stated that it was willing to consider extending the deal with Russia’s Gazprom if Moscow is not paid for gas supplies until the war in Ukraine ends. Kyiv could also allow gas transit from another country if it received guarantees the supply was not re-labelled Russian fuel. The risk of a gas cut-off from January 2025 remains high.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Tensions rise in Germany after Christmas market attack in Magdeburg
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Germany, tensions are rising after five people were killed and 200 others injured in a car-ramming attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg on 20 December. Reports emerged indicating that authorities had received several tipoffs in November 2023 about the suspect – including from Saudi Arabia where the suspect immigrated from in 2006. The lack of security force action sparked criticism from the opposition and the public. While the government stated it would investigate whether the attack could have been prevented, the incident will most likely further undermine trust in the three governing parties ahead of the 23 February snap election. The incident will also exacerbate societal tensions, with far-right protesters scuffling with police during an anti-migration protest following the incident. The suspect’s anti-migration views and support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will also increase the risk of anti-far-right protests.
Click here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Israel Defence Forces expands presence in Syria’s Dara’a and Qunaitrah provinces
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; political instability; demonstrations
In Syria, on 22 December Israel Defense Forces (IDF) set up multiple outposts across Qunaitrah and Dara’a provinces. On 8 December IDF troops entered the Golan Heights, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement, which demilitarised the Golan Heights, had “collapsed” after the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The Golan Heights has been under Israeli administration since 1967, in violation of international law. IDF operations, including raids on homes and farms to secure borders and ensure the absence of al-Assad forces and Iran-backed factions, have resulted in local calls for daily protests. On 20 December at least one person was injured as IDF soldiers opened fire on residents protesting their presence in western Dara’a province. UN peacekeepers are set to arrive in the buffer zone shortly. IDF incursions are expected to persist.
Click here to access Israel’s and here to access Syria’s Global Intake profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Mozambique holds its breath as court ruling on election to be announced
Sectors: all
Key risks: political instability, civil unrest, governability
In Mozambique, on 23 December the Constitutional Court (CC) is set to verify the results of the highly controversial 9 October general elections. Several rounds of post-election protests since 19 October – led by opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane – have destabilised the political space, with opposition parties calling for a recount. The sentiment was echoed by the Mozambican Bar Association (OAM) on 13 December in which they called for the CC to annul or recount the vote to ensure the stability of the country. Despite reports of dialogue on 20 December with President Felipe Nyusi, Mondlane has threatened to start the largest and most disruptive set of protests yet if the CC confirms the ruling Mozambican Liberation Front’s (FRELIMO) victory in the disputed election. These protests are poised to further destabilise the country ahead of Mondlane’s claimed return to the country on 15 January 2025.
Click here to access Mozambique’s Global Intake profile
