Americas: Thousands demonstrate in support of former president Bolsonaro in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political polarisation
In Brazil, on 16 March thousands demonstrated in support of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro state. Protesters demanded that Congress grant amnesty to hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters who participated in the 8 January 2023 riots in the capital Brasilia, and called for the ouster of President Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro faces charges of leading a plot to overthrow the government and undermine democracy after his 2022 election loss, which he denounces as political persecution. On 25 March a panel of five judges will determine whether to accept charges against Bolsonaro, who may face a trial and the possibility of a 40-year prison term. Given Bolsonaro’s increased reliance on supporters to pressure Congress into extracting concessions – including overturning a ban on competing in the 2026 elections – the risk of further such protests will remain heightened.
Click here to access Brazil’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippines’ police make major raids against criminal groups in Quezon City
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence; violent clashes
In the Philippines, on 17 March reports emerged that 251 people were arrested in a major security operation that took place between 9 and 15 March in Quezon City, Manila. Those arrested were charged with various crimes, including 94 illegal gamblers, 69 drug suspects and 10 individuals with illegal firearms. 78 others wanted for numerous other charges were also arrested. Quezon City Police Director Col. Melecio Buslig Jr. stated that police additionally seized PHP1.9m (US$33,168) in illegal narcotics and PHP29,295 (US$511) in gambling funds. The operation came amid an intensifying crackdown on crime throughout the Southeast Asia region that began in mid-January following the kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing in Thailand on 3 January. The risk of gang-affiliated retaliation against police in both the country and wider region will remain elevated in the short-to-medium term.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on terms of peace deal in key breakthrough
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 13 March Armenian and Azerbaijani officials announced that the two sides agreed to the terms of a peace agreement to end nearly 40 years of conflict, adding that the deal was ready to be signed. Efforts to reach a peace deal have accelerated since Baku’s following 19 September 2023 takeover of the breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh (NK) on 20 September 2023. Yerevan stated it was ready to begin consultations with Baku on the date and place for signing the agreement. However, it remains unclear when the deal can be signed, as Baku demands a change to the Armenian constitution to remove a reference to NK from the document. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has previously called for a referendum to change the constitution but no date has been set.
Click here to access Armenia’s and here to access Azerbaijan’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Germany’s Merz secures Greens’ backing for major borrowing increase, defence overhaul
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political impasse; policy uncertainty
On 16 March Germany’s parliamentary budget committee approved the likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans for a major increase in government spending. This came after on 14 March Merz secured backing from the Greens party for a proposed EUR500bln (US$509bln) infrastructure fund and a constitutional amendment excluding defence spending above 1 per cent of GDP limit imposed by the “debt brake”. This change would allow Germany to borrow unlimited funds to quickly enhance military investments and modernise the armed forces. The plans came amid coalition talks between Merz’s CDU, the Social Democrats and the Greens. After winning the 23 February general elections, Merz pledged to “strengthen Europe” and “achieve independence” amid a widening rift with Washington. Merz seeks approval for the plans from the outgoing parliament before a more fragmented new parliament convenes on 25 March.
Click here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: US-UK airstrikes kill at least 32 in Yemen’s western provinces
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Yemen, on 15 March at least 32 people were killed and at least 98 injured in large-scale US-UK airstrikes targeting Huthi positions across multiple western provinces. Washington confirmed that several key Huthi commanders were eliminated. US President Donald Trump defended the strikes as a critical step in neutralising “dangerous terrorists” aligned with Iran. The strikes followed the Huthis’ 12 March threat to resume attacks on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea after a humanitarian aid deadline for Gaza expired. As US-led airstrikes continue in the coming days, the Huthis will likely escalate retaliatory attacks on US, UK and allied assets, including military bases, naval vessels and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Increased drone and missile strikes on Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are also likely, raising the risk of further regional escalation.
Click here to access Yemen’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Tensions high between Eritrea and Ethiopia amid factionalism in Tigray
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; political instability; regional conflict
In Ethiopia, on 13 March the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) captured the mayor’s office and a major radio station in Mekelle, Tigray region. This is the latest escalation following the TPLF’s capture of Adigrat and Adigudem on 12 March. Tensions between the TPLF and the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) have increased over the federal government’s progress with the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which the TPLF accused of purposely destabilising the region by TIRA. Both the TIRA and Ethiopia have accused Eritrea of exploiting the tensions in the Tigray region to its benefit, with former Ethiopian president Mulatu Teshome accusing Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki of destabilising the Tigray region and undermining Ethiopia. As reports of troop movements along the border raise fears of a renewed conflict between Asmara and Addis Ababa, tensions will remain high in the Tigray region in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s and here to access Eritrea’s Global Intake profile.
