Americas: Argentina’s CGT to strike against President Milei’s austerity measures on 10 April
Sectors: all; energy; hospitality; transport; financial
Key Risks: business disruptions; supply chain disruption; industrial action
In Argentina, on 20 March the country’s largest workers union, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), announced a general 24-hour strike against President Javier Milei’s austerity measures on 10 April. The CGT stated that “there is no conversation with the government” after it set a cap on regular salary negotiations between unions and employers overseen by the Labour Secretariat. While Milei’s administration has curbed sky-high inflation and slashed the fiscal deficit, the CGT argued that spending cuts have weakened workers’ purchasing power and led to layoffs. More than 50,000 public sector contracts are set to expire on 31 March. This will mark the third union-led general strike against Milei since he took office on 10 December 2023. Significant cross-sector service and transport disruptions are expected, with the risk of further strikes and protests remaining heightened in the short and medium.
Click here to access Argentina’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese projected to win slim victory in Australian election
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty
In Australia, on 30 March polls indicated that incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is projected to win the upcoming 3 May federal election by a slim margin of just 51 per cent. If the Labour party is unsuccessful, it will be the first time an incumbent lost after one term since 1931. Albanese, who faced all-time low approval ratings of minus 21 per cent in mid-February, turned election polls in his administration’s favour through central bank quantitative easing, surprise tax cuts and pledging to ban price gouging in supermarkets. However, the opposition conservative Liberal-National coalition is also expected to make gains in parliament, with the Labour party projected to be only one seat short of securing a majority, indicating that a hung parliament is likely even if Albanese secures victory.
Click here to access Australia’s Global Intake country profile
Eurasia: US President Trump angry at Russian Putin over his approach to Ukraine negotiations
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; economic risks
On 30 March US President Donald Trump made his most critical comments to date regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he was “very angry” at his Russian counterpart over his approach to negotiations with Ukraine. This came after on 28 March Putin proposed introducing a temporary administration in Ukraine to enable new elections. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on any country purchasing Russian oil if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire by an unspecified deadline. This would be similar to the 25 percent tariff he threatened on any country buying Venezuelan oil on 25 March. In response to Trump’s comments, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin remained open to contact with Trump, adding that a telephone call could be arranged “quickly if needed.” Trump’s latest comments underscored that reaching a deal will prove extremely difficult.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Le Pen’s ban on public office triggers political earthquake in France
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In France, on 31 March the leader of the far-right National Rally party (RN), Marine Le Pen, and eight other MPs were found guilty of embezzling EU Parliament funds. Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban on running for office, which effectively disqualified her from running in the 2027 presidential election, in which she was one of the frontrunners. While she stated she would appeal, it is unlikely she will be allowed to run in the vote. The ban will undermine the RN in the short term as the party lacks another strong candidate for the presidential race. The party’s leader, Jordan Bardella, could step in but there are concerns about his lack of experience. In the medium and long term, the ruling will likely fuel grievances among the far-right, with Le Pen’s allies – both domestic and foreign – calling the decision unlawful and undemocratic.
Click here to access France’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Iran warns of attacks on US regional bases amid nuclear tensions
Sectors: all
Key Risks: nuclear war; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Iran, on 28 March Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf warned that Tehran would target US military bases in the region if Washington launched attacks on its nuclear infrastructure. The statement followed US President Donald Trump’s 20 March ultimatum, asking Tehran to choose between military conflict and negotiating a new nuclear deal. The escalation in rhetoric raises the risk of military confrontations, particularly around US bases in Iraq and Syria, where Iran-backed militias have previously targeted US forces. While diplomatic efforts will likely intensify to prevent open conflict, the situation will remain highly volatile. Any preemptive or retaliatory strikes by either side risk triggering broader regional escalation, increasing threats to military, diplomatic and economic assets in the Middle East.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sudan Armed Forces claims victory in the capital, RSF claims war not over
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; governability; political stability
In Sudan, on 26 March Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) leader General Abdelfattah al-Burhan entered the Presidential Palace in Khartoum following its recapture on 26 March. A sustained SAF offensive saw notable successes in March, with the recapture of the Central Bank, airport and other key sites in the capital, shifting momentum further towards the SAF. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) retreated from the city between 21 and 26 March following a string of defeats in the capital since February. Al-Burhan has emphasised that victories in the capital, while a major victory, has not won the war, with the RSF vowing to fight on and eventually recapture Khartoum. The withdrawal of the RSF from the capital will strengthen its hand in the western region, where fighting has intensified. Further clashes near Khartoum are likely in the coming days as SAF operations have now shifted to fully recapturing Omdurman, Khartoum state.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake profile
