Americas: Indigenous protests disrupt Amazon soy shipping route in Brazil
Sectors: all; shipping
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; business disruptions; supply chain disruption; cargo transport
In Brazil, on 26 March indigenous Munduruku people launched a protest, including a partial blockade of the Transamazonian highway near the Miritituba river port in the Amazon rainforest, Para state, to pressure the Supreme Court to overturn the 2023 Time Frame Limitation law aimed at limiting their land rights. The protests have since prevented the passage of 70,000 tonnes of grain per day worth US$30m. This came as China’s demand for the country’s soy has surged amid an ongoing trade war with the US, increasing the strategic significance of Miritituba port, where soy volumes were forecast to rise by 20 per cent in 2025. Given the prominence of indigenous land rights demands, the risk of prolonged protests disrupting the operations of global soybean companies in the region – and undermining the country’s ability to meet China’s increased demand – will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Malaysia seeks ASEAN regional response to heavy US tariffs
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; trade friction
In Malaysia, on 4 April Kuala Lumpur held talks with the leaders of Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei to discuss a united response to the imposition of tariffs on the region’s major economies by the US. While Vietnam and Cambodia have already entered trade negotiations with Washington, Malaysia’s position as chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) uniquely places it to negotiate on behalf of the region. ASEAN countries face some of the steepest tariff rates in the world, with countries such as Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia facing tariff rates of nearly 50 per cent. The heavily export-dependent nature of these economies indicates a high likelihood of trade negotiations and shifts in economic policy among ASEAN member states in the short-to-medium term.
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Eurasia: UK and France host Coalition of the Willing talks on Ukraine
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 10 April the UK and France will host a meeting of Defence Ministers from the Coalition of the Willing – a group of 31 countries pledging to strengthen support for Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion. The initiative was announced by London on 2 March after a public spat between US and Ukrainian officials prompted a brief halt to US aid and raised fears over future US support. In addition to securing long-term military aid for Kyiv, London and Paris seek to gauge which countries are willing to commit to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine as part of a peace settlement. Major disagreements on the peacekeeping force persist as European leaders intensify efforts to reach a consensus. Russia’s opposition to such a force also raises doubts about the proposal. Efforts to reach a consensus will continue in the coming weeks amid the US push for ceasefire talks.
Click here to access the UK’s and here to access France’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Protests to continue in Serbia as Vucic nominates medical professor as prime minister
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Serbia, on 6 April President Aleksandar Vucic nominated Djuro Macut, a medical professor at the University of Belgrade, as prime minister. Macut – who has no previous experience in politics – has proven to be a vocal supporter of Vucic and the government in the face of massive anti-government protests sparked by the November 2024 Novi Sad train station accident, delivering a speech at a counter-protest in Jagodina in January. The opposition claims that Macut’s appointment aims to consolidate Vucic’s power. Protesters are unlikely to be placated by his appointment, as they seek structural change in the country’s politics, which a Vucic loyalist is unlikely to deliver. Parliament, where Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) holds a majority, must approve Macut and his government by 18 April to avoid snap elections. As protests are set to continue, political stability risks will remain high.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Clashes erupt near Libya’s Az Zawiyah oil refinery amid rival fight for control
Sectors: all
Key risks: violent clashes; economic risks
In Libya, on 5 April at least one person was killed and several others were injured in violent clashes between the Government of National Unity (GNU)-led Western Coast Military Zone and the First Support Battalion, led by Mohammed Kashlaf, near the Az Zawiyah oil refinery, West province. The fighting centered on control of the oil site, raising fears of damage to storage tanks and gas pipelines. On 4 April the First Support Battalion claimed it had regained control of the refinery. Rival groups often compete for control over critical infrastructure, particularly oil facilities that are vital to the economy. Tensions could further escalate as the militia seeks to regain control of the Az Zawiyah oil refinery, a move that risks triggering renewed violence and potential damage to critical infrastructure.
Click here to access Libya’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: JNIM attacks blow to counter-terrorism efforts in northern Burkina Faso
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; regional conflict
In Burkina Faso on 3 April at least 100 civilians were reportedly killed by Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) during attacks on several villages in the Sourou valley, Boucle du Mouhoun region. The attack appeared to be reprisal as locals had welcomed security forces when they recaptured the territory in a counter-terrorism operation on 22 March, with JNIM claiming that the operation violated non-aggression pacts with villages in the valley. The 3 April JNIM attack marked a blow to a series of reported successes in counter-terrorism in the tri-border areas of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger as the three countries have stepped up efforts to recapture artisanal mines and rural areas under JNIM influence since February. As the military continues operations in the north of the country, further clashes and reprisal attacks are likely in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Burkina Faso’s Global Intake profile.
